🌅 October Kickoff: Cryptocurrency Market Rebound Under the Leadership of U.S. Stocks
Good morning, crypto friends ☀️ I am Wang Yibo! Today is Wednesday, October 1st, and the National Day holiday has officially begun, while the crypto market is entering a critical juncture of bullish and bearish battles. Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices continued their strong performance, with the Dow Jones rising 0.18%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.41%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.30%. The S&P 500 not only achieved five consecutive months of gains but also recorded the best September performance since 2010 and the strongest third quarter since 2020. The continuous rise of U.S. stocks is closely related to the market's strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut — institutions are generally betting that the Fed will initiate the first round of a 25 basis point cut next week, with the possibility of cumulative cuts exceeding three times this year, injecting strong momentum into risk assets.
Boosted by this, the crypto market experienced a "first suppression then rise" trend yesterday: after testing the high of $114,750 in the morning, it retreated deeply to the support level of $112,627. After a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, it surged again to $114,700 in the early hours of today, just a step away from the previous high. From the hourly chart, after testing the lower support, the price rebounded with consecutive bullish candles. Although there is a slight pullback currently, a strong upward structure has formed again.
From a fundamental perspective, the expectations of a Fed rate cut and institutional allocation demand constitute core support — previously, institutions like Galaxy Digital increased their holdings of tokens like Solana by over $400 million in a single day, indicating that large funds are still actively positioning in crypto assets. In terms of operations, the bullish outlook remains unchanged, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support range of $113,500-$114,000. A pullback to this range could be an opportunity to accumulate long positions, with a target looking towards breaking through the $115,000 round number.
- Ethereum (ETH): Linked Rebound Faces Resistance, Strong Fluctuation Pattern Remains
Ethereum has formed a strong correlated trend with Bitcoin. After reaching a high of $4,243 yesterday morning, it faced pressure and fell back, dipping to a low of $4,090. In the midnight hours, as market sentiment warmed, it rebounded to $4,200, recovering most of the losses. Technical indicators show that the DIF and DEA maintain a golden cross divergence, and although the MACD histogram has contracted, it remains above the zero axis, confirming that the upward trend has not reversed.
It is worth noting that Ethereum's long-term fundamentals continue to improve: Standard Chartered has raised its target price for 2025 to $7,500, and institutions are continuously increasing their holdings through ETFs, with monthly inflows equivalent to 1.1 times the new supply of blockchain, supporting an upward shift in the price center. On Wednesday, one could consider low long positions, with support levels to watch at $4,150-$4,180. If the rebound faces resistance at $4,250, partial profit-taking could be considered.
⚠️ October Market: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
The current market is in a balance of "positive support + risk disturbance": expectations of a Fed rate cut and institutional capital inflow provide support for cryptocurrency prices, while the risk of a U.S. government shutdown may trigger short-term volatility — historical data shows that a government shutdown could lead to an economic loss of $7 billion per week, intensifying market risk aversion.
For investors holding coins during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to prepare for two points: first, set stop-loss orders to protect profits, with Bitcoin referencing the key support level of $112,000 and Ethereum at $4,050; second, closely monitor changes in news, as the Senate will vote again on the temporary funding bill today. If it fails to pass, it may trigger a market pullback; conversely, it could help push cryptocurrency prices to new highs.
💡 Yibo's Message
The market hates uncertainty, but uncertainty often harbors opportunities. Against the backdrop of strong U.S. stocks and institutional accumulation, the rebound trend in the crypto market has a foundation for continuation, and short-term fluctuations are more likely to be a "golden pit" rather than a reversal signal. Follow Yibo's real-time updates, like and check in to keep up with the rhythm, and let's seize trading opportunities together in October 🍗🍗🌹🌹!
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