In August 2025, the core personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased by 0.23% month-on-month, slightly exceeding the expected 0.21%. The year-on-year growth rate remained at 2.9%, below the expected 3.0%. Since mid-2024, it has consistently been above 2.5%, indicating that despite a slowdown in commodity prices, inflationary pressures still exist. The overall PCE inflation rate rose from 2.6% in July to 2.7% in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.26%, slightly lower than the expected 0.3% increase.

Core PCE is one of the more important data points for the Federal Reserve in assessing interest rate adjustments, as it is a measure of inflation. Although PCE inflation met expectations, its accelerated rise has led to a more pessimistic economic outlook. This report emphasizes the ongoing challenge for the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation control with economic growth, and it continues to exert pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

With inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to maintain interest rate cuts, raising concerns among investors about potential measures the Fed may take in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to high selling pressure on Bitcoin in the recent market. Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a total liquidation of approximately $1.5 billion, with prices testing support around $108,500. This resulted in an overall evaporation of more than $160 billion in cryptocurrency market capitalization, marking the most severe liquidation wave in September.

However, after a week of intense fluctuations, Bitcoin's price has once again risen above the $112,000 mark today, reigniting the bullish sentiment in the market. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $112,125, up about 2.3% in the last 24 hours. With Bitcoin stabilizing above the $112,000 level, it indicates a confirmation of bullish structure and a warming risk appetite, suggesting that funds may rotate into mainstream currencies.

Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart

Bitcoin's price has dropped from a high of $117,900 to a low of $108,620 and is currently rebounding to around $112,200. In terms of key resistance levels, the 38.2% retracement level at $112,168 is just near the current price, while the 50% retracement level at $113,252 and the 61.8% retracement level at $114,335 are stronger resistance levels. A breakthrough above $114,335 may open up greater rebound potential. In terms of support levels, the 23.6% retracement level at $110,827 and the previous low at $108,620 are referenced.

Technical indicators show that the MACD's DIF line has crossed above the DEA line, forming a golden cross signal. The expanding MACD red histogram indicates that short-term rebound momentum is continuously strengthening, but it is still operating below the zero axis, and the mid-term trend has not yet reversed. If it can break through $113,200 and stabilize, the MACD is expected to further recover. The KDJ indicator is currently operating at a high level, with the K value at 87 and the J value approaching 100, entering the overbought zone. Short-term fluctuations or pullbacks may occur, especially in the Fibonacci 38.2%-50% resistance range. If the J value turns downward, the risk of a short-term pullback will increase.

The middle track of the Bollinger Bands MA20 is trending down, but the price has rebounded from the lower track and is approaching the upper track, which is approximately in the $113,500-$114,000 range, overlapping with the Fibonacci 50%-61.8% resistance levels, indicating that the $113,200-$114,300 range may be a short-term target or key resistance area.

In summary, Bitcoin has completed an oversold rebound near $108,600, currently reaching $112,200 (38.2% resistance level). If it cannot strongly and effectively stabilize at this level, it is expected to face fluctuations in the short term.

Based on the above, the following conclusions are provided for reference:

If it effectively stabilizes at $112,100, it will continue to look towards the $113,200-$114,300 range. If it encounters resistance in this range, it may pull back to $110,800-$111,200 or even retest the $108,600 support.

Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; it is suggested to earn for a moment, but learning the mindset will allow you to earn for a lifetime!

Writing time: (2025-09-29, 20:50)

(Written by - Daxian Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。