People experience fortune and misfortune, just as the moon goes through phases of brightness and darkness. It is important to understand that no matter how good our conditions are, there will always be those who do not like us; and no matter how poor our conditions are, there will always be those who love us. Therefore, do not let the seeds of jealousy sprout, and do not let the thoughts of anger blossom. All things in the world must follow the path of balance to achieve great harmony and true joy!
During the two days of the weekend, the market basically showed no fluctuations, entering a phase of low-volume consolidation. Initially, I thought this state would last a bit longer, but then starting early this morning, the market began to show an upward structure, with the high point reaching above 112,000, a strong short-term surge of nearly 3,000 points. There is not much to review from the weekend's market; however, today has shown some short-term strength, but for the larger trend, there has not yet been a change. In terms of operations, I originally planned to observe a weak consolidation trend, but now there have been some changes, and with the holiday approaching, we may hope for a suitable trending market for operational arrangements.
Returning to today's market, we first look at the distribution of liquidity. With the morning's surge, the previously accumulated short liquidity above during the consolidation has completed a round of cleansing, especially the short liquidity that was heavily pursued in the previous short-term highs. During the previous decline, a significant portion of the short liquidity formed a clearing zone above, and after the consolidation, this part of liquidity has now been cleared. Currently, the remaining liquidity clearing intensity is around 113,300, which is also an important clearing position for short liquidity in the short term. On the downside, there is relatively more long liquidity, which is reflected in the distribution of liquidity intensity at multiple positions, mainly around 110,700 and 109,500. For the upcoming liquidity trend, if we first clear the shorts upwards and then close, it is highly likely that there will be a two-way clearing. Regarding the spot premium index, during the weekend's consolidation, prices did not rise, but the premium index saw a significant increase, which has become a precursor to today's market rebound. The influx of funds during the consolidation has driven the market up, and the current decline in the premium rate indicates that the market is currently more about short-term speculative behavior. It may still need to maintain some consolidation before forming a new trend.
On the technical side, the weekly close saw a last-minute volume reduction rally, leaving a long lower shadow, ultimately failing to form a solid bullish candle. This has made the bearish strength on the weekly chart somewhat ambiguous. The upcoming week will be crucial; originally, the cycle began with a bearish retreat from a high position, and with another weekly bearish close, the expectation for a top divergence correction at the weekly level can still be anticipated. The formation of a lower shadow indicates that there is a support force below, and we are currently observing how this force performs this week. If this week closes bullish, it would signify that the next 1-2 weeks will be a consolidation market; if it continues to close bearish, the original correction trend will persist. In my view, the two paths are completely 50-50, so there is no need to participate in the market recently. Short-term trades can be made, while long-term positions should maintain the previous high short positions, with a stop loss if the price breaks above 118,000.
On the daily level, a large bullish candle has formed after a bottom test. From the moving average structure, it has just returned to the MA120 moving average trend line resistance position, currently slightly retreating, and has not formed a trend structure breakthrough. We still need to observe how the rebound tests this position. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD cycle has turned from a bearish high position and is converging; whether it will form a daily trend reversal into a bullish cycle is still uncertain, so we can wait and see. On the four-hour level, the structure is a consolidation reversal into a bullish trend. From the candlestick pattern, the rebound two weeks ago did not create a higher high, and the recent pullback did not create a lower low, so it is likely to be a converging pattern. Currently, after forming a bottom test and rally, the technical indicators, MACD and RSI, have both reached a high position, indicating that there is still an expectation for a short-term correction.
In terms of operations, I personally still lean towards consolidation in the short term. For short-term trading, I will focus on several short-term clearing positions, with short positions near 113,300 and long positions at 110,700 and 109,500. The long-term layout remains unchanged, with 118,000 as the stop loss.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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