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Daily Level: Bearish Arrangement Strengthened, Volume-Price Divergence Indicates Weakness

Today's Bitcoin daily chart shows a clear downward trend structure, with the current price at 110200 continuously operating below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Both moving averages have formed a death cross and are accelerating downward, with the distance between the moving averages expanding by 15% compared to yesterday, further strengthening the bearish arrangement. It is worth noting that the five consecutive bearish candles that started from the high of 113940 are still ongoing, with each bearish candle accompanied by a slight increase in volume, indicating a consistent selling pressure from bears.

In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reported 41.2 today, down 2.8 basis points from yesterday, entering the mid-range of the neutral to bearish zone, and has not yet reached the oversold threshold, suggesting that the downward space is not completely closed. The MACD indicator maintains a death cross state, with the downward opening between the blue line and the red line continuing to expand, and the height of the green bars increasing by 22% compared to the previous trading day, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released without signs of exhaustion.

In terms of key price levels, the integer level of 110000 has become the current core support, forming a "stair-step support zone" with the low of 107304 on September 1. However, the price has tested the area near 110000 multiple times today, and each rebound has failed to break through the resistance level of 111500, indicating that the effectiveness of the support is weakening. If this level is lost, the next strong support will point to the 107304 area, while the 200-day EMA at 105965 will constitute a watershed for the medium to long-term trend.

4-Hour Level: Weak Rebound, Narrowing Fluctuation Range

In the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a "low-level sideways fluctuation" pattern, with the fluctuation range narrowing from yesterday's 110500-112000 to 110000-111000, a compression of 45%, indicating that market volatility is decreasing and a directional choice is approaching. The EMA moving average system shows a strict bearish arrangement, with EMA5 continuously suppressing EMA20, and each divergence after the moving averages converge is accompanied by new price lows, confirming the dominant position of the bearish trend.

The trading volume shows a typical "shrinking fluctuation" characteristic, with the 4-hour trading volume shrinking by 31% compared to the same period yesterday, especially during the rebound phase where the volume is insufficient, indicating a lack of bullish support. The MACD indicator has formed a "consolidation" state below the zero axis, with the histogram line almost touching the zero axis. Breakouts in this form often have strong explosive power, and attention should be paid to the subsequent volume coordination.

Ethereum: Support Level on the Brink, Bearish Dominance Unchanged

Daily Level: Stair-Step Decline Continues, Key Support Under Test

The Ethereum daily chart is also in a clear downward channel, with the current price at 3950 having broken below the key integer level of 4000, which had formed three effective supports over the past three weeks. The technical aspect has formed a "breakout bearish" signal after this breakdown. From a structural perspective, the downward trend that started from the high of 4450 has formed a clear "descending staircase," with each rebound high lower than the previous high and the lows continuing to decline, highlighting the bearish-dominated market pattern.

The RSI indicator reported 38.7 today, down 3.3 basis points from yesterday, nearing the edge of the oversold area, but no stabilization signal has appeared, indicating that the bearish momentum is still strengthening. The MACD indicator has long completed a death cross, with the green bars showing a continuous expansion trend, and the downward opening between the signal line and the MACD line is constantly widening, indicating that bearish momentum release has not yet peaked. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's bearish trend is more pronounced.

In terms of support systems, the 3920 area has become the current core defense line, forming a "double support zone" with the 100-day moving average at 3832. However, the extreme shrinkage of trading volume today (down 37% compared to yesterday) suggests that this support level lacks buying support. If this level is lost, the next target will point to the 3832 area, and it may even test the medium to long-term support at the 200-day moving average of 3369.

4-Hour Level: Selling Pressure Dominates, Risk of Pattern Breakdown Increases

In the 4-hour chart, Ethereum shows a "breakout followed by a pullback confirmation" trend. After breaking below the 4000 level yesterday, there was a brief rebound to around 4010 in the morning, but it soon faced selling pressure and fell back, confirming that the 4000 level has transformed from a support level to a resistance level. The EMA moving average system shows a "waterfall" downward arrangement, with prices consistently operating below EMA24, which has now become a strong resistance for short-term rebounds.

The volume indicator shows that the 4-hour trading volume during the pullback phase is only 62% of the decline phase, and the lack of volume leads to a weak rebound. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows a "downward opening" pattern, with the lower band continuously moving down, and prices operating near the lower band, indicating that the bearish trend is still ongoing. If the price subsequently breaks down with volume below the 3920 support level, it may trigger a wave of stop-loss orders, initiating a new round of accelerated decline.

Comprehensive Assessment and Operational Guidance

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in an adjustment phase dominated by bearish trends, with the technical aspect lacking clear stabilization signals. Bitcoin needs to focus on the defense effect of the 110000 integer support level; if it breaks down, it will open up further downward space, with short-term resistance focusing on 111500, which needs to break through with volume to alleviate downward pressure. Ethereum has already broken below the key level of 4000, with 3920 becoming the next important support, while the area around 4050 forms a dense selling pressure zone, which needs to be broken to reverse the short-term weakness.

The core risk in the current market lies in the self-reinforcing effect of the bearish trend, especially the potential resonance decline that may occur due to the release of momentum after the MACD death cross and the loss of key support levels. Investors should avoid premature bottom-fishing and wait for multiple signals to resonate, such as the RSI entering the oversold area, the MACD green bars contracting, and prices stabilizing above short-term moving averages, before considering rebound opportunities. For short-term traders, a "short position as the main strategy" can be adopted, focusing on shorting opportunities near 111000 for Bitcoin, while Ethereum should focus on the selling pressure nodes in the 4000-4050 range, with strict stop-loss settings to control risk.

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