Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.78 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.8%, which is $2.18 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $297.2 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.58%. For the first time in three months, there has been a weekly data decline, with USDT accounting for 58.65%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: ASTER with a 7-day increase of 117.01%, XPL with a 7-day increase of 64.59%, SNX with a 7-day increase of 73.35%, MERL with a 7-day increase of 58.95%, and AVNT with a 7-day increase of 49.11%.
This week, there was a net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF of $897 million; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF also saw a net outflow of $795 million.
Market Forecast (September 29 - October 3) :
The current RSI index is 44.59, indicating a neutral position. The Fear and Greed Index is at 32 (indicating fear), marking the first entry into the fear zone since February of this year, while the altcoin season index is at 71.
BTC core range: $105,000-115,000
ETH core range: $3700-4100
SOL core range: $191-210
Short-term trading (1-3 days): The current market is at a critical technical point, and short-term volatility may increase. The strategy should be cautious and observant.
Mid-term layout (several weeks): Focus on macro fundamentals, such as Federal Reserve policy trends and U.S. PCE inflation data. If BTC can hold the key support at $115,500, there is still hope for a mid-term challenge of new highs.
Long-term investment (several months or more): Institutional demand (such as continued capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs) and the global liquidity environment remain core supports. A strategy of accumulating in batches during dips can be adopted.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On September 23, according to market news, DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) listed the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF with the trading code TDOG. Although this does not indicate that the ETF has received any regulatory approval or any clear approval process results, listing on the DTCC website is a "standard process" for launching new ETFs.
On September 23, UXLINK's official announcement stated that a security vulnerability involving its multi-signature wallet had been discovered, leading to a large amount of cryptocurrency being illegally transferred to CEX and DEX. The team is working with security experts to identify the cause and control the situation, has contacted trading platforms to freeze suspicious UXLINK deposits, and has reported to the police and relevant authorities to promote legal accountability and asset recovery. UXLINK will continue to provide transparent updates on the latest developments. Previous reports indicated that UXLINK suffered losses exceeding $11 million.
On September 24, according to Defillama data, Aster's revenue in the past 24 hours reached $7.04 million, setting a new historical high. It surpassed Hyperliquid ($2.79 million) and is only behind Tether ($21.99 million) and Circle ($7.72 million).
The U.S. SEC and CFTC will jointly hold a roundtable on September 29 to coordinate cryptocurrency regulatory policies.
On September 25, the newly listed coin Griffin AI (GAIN) on Binance Alpha began a one-sided decline at 7:27 AM Beijing time today, dropping over 95% in less than an hour, reaching a low of $0.005, and is currently quoted at $0.00758, with a market cap of only $2.58 million on BSC.
On September 25, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated on Wednesday that she "fully supports" the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates last week and mentioned that further rate cuts may be needed in the future.
On September 26, U.S. President Trump announced that starting October 1, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all "heavy trucks" produced in other parts of the world; a 50% tariff will be imposed on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products. A 30% tariff will be imposed on upholstered furniture; a 100% tariff will be imposed on any brand or patented pharmaceutical products unless the company is establishing its pharmaceutical factory in the U.S.
Macroeconomics
On September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025. The expectation was 235,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
On September 26, the U.S. core PCE price index for August was 2.9% year-on-year, with an expectation of 2.90% and a previous value of 2.90%, meeting market expectations. The month-on-month core PCE price index for August was 0.2%, with an expectation of 0.20%, and the previous value was revised from 0.30% to 0.2%.
On September 27, according to the Federal Reserve's rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 90.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from September 22 to September 26, there was a net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF of $897 million; as of September 26, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.118 billion, currently holding $19.272 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.706 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $144.473 billion.
There was a net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF of $795 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1 to 2, 2025;
SuiFest will take place on October 2 in Singapore;
Blockchain Life 2025 will be held in Dubai, UAE, from October 28 to 29, 2025.
Project Progress
FTX will conduct the next round of fund distribution on September 30, with the disputed claims reserve reduced by $1.9 billion (from $6.5 billion to $4.3 billion), with the record date set for August 15. This distribution is aimed at eligible claimants, general unsecured claim holders, and previously undistributed convenience claim holders. The distribution will be conducted through three service providers: BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer;
L1 blockchain Kaia (formerly Klaytn) announced that the token swap service for FNSA to KAIA will end on September 30, and all operations of the traditional Finschia chain will also cease;
The Arbitrum ecosystem modular trading platform Kinto will shut down the project, with the Kinto wallet and asset withdrawals open until September 30, and the ERA airdrop expected to be distributed on October 15;
The TGE registration window for Sei ecosystem protocol Yei Finance is open until September 30;
Starknet will launch BTC staking functionality on the mainnet on September 30, and the un-staking period will be shortened from 21 days to 7 days;
SBI Holdings has acquired a majority stake in Web3 media company CoinPost, with the transaction expected to be completed by October 1, 2025.
Important Events
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a joint statement announcing that they will jointly hold a roundtable on September 29, potentially discussing coordination areas such as 24/7 markets, prediction markets, perpetual contracts, portfolio margining, innovation exemptions, and DeFi;
The UK will trial the main suspect in a 60,000 Bitcoin money laundering case, Qian Zhimin, on September 29, 2025. Qian Zhimin (phonetic, alias Zhang Yadi) is the main suspect in the Tianjin Blue Sky Ge Rui 43 billion yuan illegal fundraising case, arrested in April 2024, and charged with two counts of money laundering;
Strategy's four preferred stocks will distribute cash dividends on September 30;
U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that the cryptocurrency market structure bill will be completed by September 30;
On September 30, Australia will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision;
On October 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will announce the September ADP employment numbers (in ten thousand);
On October 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27 (in ten thousand);
On October 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the September unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll numbers (in ten thousand).
Token Unlocking
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.75 million tokens on September 2 at 15:00, valued at approximately $25.92 million, accounting for 0.64% of the circulating supply;
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.88 million tokens on September 3 at 8:00, valued at approximately $2.86 million, accounting for 0.42% of the circulating supply;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.84 million tokens on September 5 at 8:00, valued at approximately $12.42 million, accounting for 1.277% of the circulating supply;
Mocaverse (MOCA) will unlock 2.46 million tokens on September 5 at 8:00, valued at approximately $165,000, accounting for 0.06% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also interact with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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