Original Title: Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q4 2025
Original Source: Grayscale
Original Translation: Golden Finance
Key Points of the Article:
· In Q3 2025, all six cryptocurrency sectors had positive price returns, while fundamental changes were mixed. The "cryptocurrency sectors" is a proprietary framework developed in collaboration with index provider FTSE/Russell to organize the digital asset market and measure returns.
· Bitcoin's performance lagged behind other cryptocurrencies, and the return patterns of other cryptocurrencies can be seen as a "altcoin season"—though different from past periods of Bitcoin's dominance decline.
· The ranking of the top 20 tokens in Q3 (based on volatility-adjusted price returns) highlights the importance of stablecoin legislation and adoption, rising centralized exchange trading volumes, and the significance of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT).
Every asset in cryptocurrency is associated with blockchain technology and shares the same fundamental market structure—but the similarities end there. This asset class encompasses a wide range of software technologies applied in areas such as consumer finance, artificial intelligence (AI), media, and entertainment. To keep the data organized, Grayscale Research uses a proprietary classification and index series developed in collaboration with FTSE/Russell, known as "Crypto Sectors." The "Crypto Sectors" framework covers six different sub-markets (Chart 1). They collectively include 261 tokens with a total market capitalization of $3.5 trillion.
Chart 1: The "Crypto Sectors" framework helps organize the digital asset market
Measuring Blockchain Fundamentals
Blockchains are not enterprises, but their economic activities and financial health can be measured in similar ways. The three most important on-chain activity indicators are users, transactions, and transaction fees. Since blockchains are anonymous, analysts often use "active addresses" (blockchain addresses with at least one transaction) as an imperfect substitute for the number of users.
In Q3, the fundamental indicators of blockchain health showed mixed results (Chart 2). On the negative side, the number of users, transaction volumes, and fees in the currency and smart contract platform cryptocurrency sectors all declined quarter-over-quarter. Overall, since Q1 2025, speculative activity related to meme coins has decreased, leading to a decline in trading volumes and trading activity.
More encouragingly, application fees based on blockchain grew by 28% quarter-over-quarter. This growth was driven by the concentrated activity of a few leading applications ranked by fee revenue: (i) Jupiter, a decentralized exchange based on Solana; (ii) Aave, a leading lending protocol in the cryptocurrency space; and (iii) Hyperliquid, a leading perpetual futures exchange. On an annualized basis, application layer fee revenue has now exceeded $10 billion. The blockchain serves as both a network for digital transactions and a platform for applications. Therefore, higher application fees can be seen as a sign of the increasing adoption of blockchain technology.
Chart 2: The fundamental performance of various cryptocurrency sectors in Q3 2025 varied
Tracking Price Performance
In Q3 2025, all six cryptocurrency sectors had positive returns on crypto assets (Chart 3). Bitcoin's performance lagged behind other sub-markets, and this return pattern can be seen as an "altcoin season" for cryptocurrencies—though different from other periods when Bitcoin's dominance declined. Driven by rising trading volumes on centralized exchanges (CEX), the financial cryptocurrency sector led the way, while the smart contract platform cryptocurrency sector may benefit from stablecoin legislation and adoption (the smart contract platform is the network where users make peer-to-peer payments using stablecoins). While all cryptocurrency sectors achieved positive returns, the AI cryptocurrency sector lagged behind other sub-markets, reflecting a period of poor returns for AI stocks. The currency cryptocurrency sector also performed poorly, reflecting the relatively modest increase in Bitcoin prices.
Chart 3: Bitcoin underperformed compared to other cryptocurrency sectors
The diversity of the cryptocurrency asset class means frequent rotation of dominant themes and market leadership. Chart 3 shows the top 20 index-qualified tokens based on volatility-adjusted price returns in Q3 2025. This list includes several large-cap tokens with market capitalizations exceeding $10 billion, including ETH, BNB, SOL, LINK, and AVAX, as well as some tokens with market capitalizations below $500 million. The financial cryptocurrency sector (seven assets) and the smart contract platform cryptocurrency sector (five assets) accounted for the highest proportion of the top 20 list this quarter.
Chart 4: The best-performing assets in each cryptocurrency sector based on risk-adjusted returns
We believe that four major themes have recently stood out in market performance:
(1) Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT): Last quarter, the number of DATs surged: publicly traded companies holding cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets as investment tools for equity investors. Several of the top 20 tokens may benefit from the creation of new DATs, including ETH, SOL, BNB, ENA, and CRO.
(2) Adoption of Stablecoins: Another significant theme last quarter was the legislation and adoption of stablecoins. On July 18, President Trump signed the Stablecoin Act (GENIUS Act), which provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. Following the passage of this act, the adoption of stablecoins accelerated, with circulating supply increasing by 16% to over $290 billion (Chart 4). Major beneficiaries include smart contract platforms that hold stablecoins, including ETH, TRX, and AVAX—among which AVAX saw a significant increase in stablecoin trading volume. The stablecoin issuer Ethena (ENA) also achieved strong price returns, despite its USDe stablecoin not meeting the requirements of the Stablecoin Act (USDe is widely used in decentralized finance, and Ethena has launched a new stablecoin that complies with the Stablecoin Act).
Chart 5: Growth in stablecoin supply this quarter, led by Ethereum
(3) Rising Exchange Trading Volumes: Exchanges are another major theme, with centralized exchange trading volumes reaching a new high in August since January (Chart 5). The increase in trading volumes seems to have benefited several assets associated with centralized exchanges, including BNB, CRO, OKB, and KCS, all of which ranked in the top 20 (in some cases, these assets are also linked to smart contract platforms).
(4) Meanwhile, decentralized perpetual contracts continue to maintain strong momentum. The leading perpetual contract exchange Hyperliquid has seen rapid growth, ranking among the top three in fee revenue this quarter. The smaller competitor DRIFT entered the top 20 in the cryptocurrency industry after a significant increase in trading volume. Another decentralized perpetual contract protocol, ASTER, launched in mid-September and grew from a market capitalization of $145 million to $3.4 billion in just one week.
Chart 6: CEX perpetual contract trading volumes reached their highest level of the year in August
In Q4 2025, returns in the cryptocurrency sectors may be driven by a series of unique themes.
First, following bipartisan support in the House for related legislation in July, the relevant committee in the U.S. Senate has begun drafting cryptocurrency market structure legislation. This represents comprehensive financial services legislation targeting the cryptocurrency industry and could serve as a catalyst for its deep integration with the traditional financial services industry.
Second, the U.S. SEC has approved universal listing standards for commodity-based exchange-traded products (ETPs). This could lead to an increase in the number of crypto assets available to U.S. investors through ETP structures.
Finally, the macro environment may continue to evolve. Last week, the Federal Reserve approved a 25 basis point rate cut and hinted at possibly two more rate cuts later this year. All else being equal, crypto assets are expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cuts (as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing currency and can support investors' risk appetite).
At the same time, the soft U.S. labor market, rising stock market valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty may all be seen as sources of downside risk for the fourth quarter.
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