Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The market is cheering for the wealth effect of XPL, while the overall market is on the verge of collapse.
In the early hours of September 26, Bitcoin ultimately fell below the important threshold of $110,000, dipping to a low of $108,631. ETH also finally broke below $4,000, reaching a low of $3,815. SOL fell below $200, hitting a low of $191.32. Most altcoins experienced a widespread decline again.
Coinglass data shows that the total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $1.191 billion, with long positions liquidated amounting to $1.073 billion. Among these, 75% were altcoins, with ETH accounting for nearly 45%. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid's ETH-USD pair, valued at $29.1176 million.
In the macro U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%, the Dow Jones index dropped by 0.38%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.5%. The spot price of gold is $3,741 per ounce, slightly down by 0.08%.
The market continues to lose important thresholds, and the dreams of countless investors for an altcoin season have once again been shattered, with bullish market dreams quickly turning into concerns about a bear market. Alternative data shows that the current market fear index has dropped to 28, indicating a spread of panic.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Uncertainty, Trump Wields Tariff Stick Again
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims and other data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has dropped to 83.4% (down from 91.9% yesterday), while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 16.6%.
On Polymarket, the market's bet on the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has fallen to 80%, while the probability of no rate cut has risen to 17%.
Additionally, internal personnel issues within the Federal Reserve remain unresolved. Trump intends to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. On Thursday, all living former Federal Reserve chairs, along with several former U.S. Treasury Secretaries, former White House economic advisors, and economists urged the U.S. Supreme Court not to allow Trump to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
Moreover, Trump stated on the 23rd of this month that the U.S. is prepared to wield the tariff stick again, intensifying market concerns. Historically, when Trump has wielded the stick, risk assets often face declines.
With poor macro market sentiment, how will crypto assets perform going forward? Analysis firms and some experts have shared their insights.
Andrew Kang: ETH's Technical Outlook is Bearish, Has Bought a Large Amount of ETH Bearish Options
Andrew Kang, founder of crypto venture capital firm Mechanism Capital, bluntly stated that Tom Lee's theory about ETH is "like a fool," and presented five major points to refute it, stirring waves in the industry: the popularity of stablecoins and RWA will not bring the expected returns; the analogy of Ethereum as "digital oil" is inaccurate; institutional buying and staking of ETH? Pure fantasy; equating ETH to the total value of all financial infrastructure companies? Utterly absurd;
The technical outlook for ETH is bearish. I do not rule out the possibility that it may oscillate in the range of $1,000 to $4,800 for a longer period. Just because an asset has previously experienced parabolic growth does not mean it will continue indefinitely.
The long-term ETH/BTC chart has also been misunderstood. It is indeed within a long-term range, but has been primarily dominated by a downward trend over the past few years, with a recent rebound at a long-term support level. The driving factor of the downward trend is that the narrative around Ethereum has become saturated, and the fundamentals cannot justify the growth in valuation; these fundamentals have not changed.
Altcoin Vector: Market Risk Aversion Remains Stable
Data analysis firm Altcoin Vector stated that this round of movement has not ended the upward expectations for altcoins. Bitcoin is the "oxygen" for altcoins: once Bitcoin stabilizes and forms a bottom, it may drive altcoins higher. Although Bitcoin's price has fallen below $110,000, market risk aversion signals remain stable. No structural signs of weakness = the bottom formation process may have already begun to show signs.
glassnode: BTC May Fall to the $90,000 to $105,000 Range
glassnode recently tweeted that Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.95 cost basis percentile, a key risk zone that often marks the arrival of profit-taking areas. If it can regain this price level, it indicates that market strength has been restored; however, if it fails to do so, it may face the risk of prices sliding down to lower support levels in the $90,000 to $105,000 range.
Matrixport: As Long as BTC Stays Above $109,899, the Bull Market Remains Intact
Matrixport stated that the fifth Bitcoin bull market is different from previous ones, as this time the price movement is driven by institutions rather than retail investors. A notable feature of this cycle is that it has nested three small bull markets within a broader upward trend—compared to only two during the 2020-2021 period. A simple and effective measure of trend health is the 21-week moving average, which serves as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. This level is currently at $109,899. As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, the bull market remains intact—but falling below this level may signal the beginning of a more challenging phase.
Santiment: The Real Opportunity to Buy the Dip Comes When the Public Stops Being Optimistic and Starts Cutting Losses
According to data tracking platform Santiment, the mention of "buying the dip" on social media surged to its highest level in nearly a month in recent days, which is typically a sign of bullish sentiment among retail investors. The platform monitors the frequency of related keywords on Reddit, Telegram, and X (formerly Twitter). Santiment believes that this surge in mentions is a contrarian indicator, suggesting that the current pullback in BTC may intensify.
In its market analysis report, Santiment pointed out: "Price movements often contradict public expectations. If retail investors believe that $112,200 is a buying opportunity, the market may need to endure more suffering. The real opportunity to buy the dip comes when the public stops being optimistic and starts cutting losses."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
