Key Points:
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are lagging behind gold and stocks in reaching new highs.
Research shows that traders are withdrawing from stablecoins, leading to changes in liquidity patterns that affect cryptocurrency performance.
History indicates that traditional risk assets need to "cool down" before cryptocurrencies can experience a rise.
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined, and the cryptocurrency market has failed to replicate the trends of gold and stocks, raising questions about whether the bull market has ended.
New research from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant highlights four key reasons for the weakening of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including Federal Reserve rate cuts, stablecoin supply, leveraged investors, and historical patterns.
Recently, Bitcoin has been stuck due to tight liquidity, with bulls not yet challenging historical highs.
Meanwhile, gold and the U.S. stock market continue to set new historical highs, leading the market to worry about whether cryptocurrencies can become a mainstream asset class.
CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan notes that the cryptocurrency market is replaying historical trends.
"In the early stages of rate cuts, institutional funds tend to flow first into high liquidity assets like stocks and gold," it stated in the "Quicktake" blog, referring to the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting measures.
XWIN compared the current Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) market patterns to those from a year ago and found many key similarities.
"This pattern is identical to that of 2024: a pre-rise after the Federal Reserve cuts rates, followed by a pullback due to liquidity not fully flowing into cryptocurrencies. Only after traditional assets cool down will Bitcoin and Ethereum perform better," it added.
Cointelegraph points out that Bitcoin typically follows gold several months after it rises.
XWIN further noted that the stablecoin supply is another factor delaying the performance of risk assets.
This month, the total supply of stablecoins reached a new high of $308 billion. However, at the same time, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges is lower than the outflow, indicating traders' tendency to hedge or take profits.
It concluded that liquidity is mainly distributed outside of exchanges, including cross-chain transfers, waiting, or flowing into private markets, rather than being actively used to purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Similar issues are also affecting capital inflows. Derivatives platform data shows that traders are more inclined to adopt hedging and leverage strategies, which is typical behavior during market consolidation phases.
"History shows that Bitcoin often 'lags and then surges,'" XWIN summarized.
According to Cointelegraph, $22.6 billion in options are set to expire this Friday, an event that could significantly impact subsequent price movements.
Related: Executives from Kraken and Crypto.com to attend SEC-CFTC roundtable to discuss "regulatory coordination efforts"
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Four Reasons Why Bitcoin (BTC) is Failing to Copy All-Time Highs of Gold and Stocks”
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