Sometimes we need to pick things up, and sometimes we need to let them go. Picking up is survival, letting go is living; picking up is ability, letting go is wisdom. If we can't pick up, we will be mediocre; if we can't let go, we will be exhausted. There are many things in life that need to be let go of. Only by letting go of those unnecessary burdens can we move forward gracefully!

The market has finally shown the expected changes. It is still maintaining a low-level oscillation. According to our analysis of the market from the day before yesterday, we originally hoped to see a drop to the 110500 position, followed by a rebound to around 114000 for a short position. However, the drop the day before yesterday only reached around 111000 before starting to rebound, which means that the short-term bullish liquidity below has not been completely cleared. As of now, the market has rebounded to around 114000, and then it has retraced again, returning below 112000. Overall, the market trend is still not much different from what we expected. Similarly, in our operations, although we did not catch the low-level long positions, we are glad that we did not miss the short positions, as our main operational strategy is still focused on continuing to look for downward adjustments.

Returning to today's market, we first look at the distribution of liquidity. From the current perspective, in the low-level oscillation market, there has not been a large accumulation of long and short liquidity. Instead, there is an uneven distribution of liquidity in the current oscillation. After the rebound cleared some of the short liquidity above, the market retraced, and there is now a short-term chasing short liquidity gathering around 113000, while the remaining liquidity clearing intensity above is around 114800. The short-term bullish liquidity below is mainly still the unliquidated 110500. Currently, there has not been a large amount of new liquidity appearing. If there is a period of oscillation next, a new large amount of liquidity is likely to gather. In terms of spot premium rate, it is in a continuous decline, and has now turned negative, which is different from the state when it dropped to this position the day before yesterday. The change from positive to negative premium indicates that the market's willingness to sell has started to become stronger, which aligns with our previous analysis that the retracement may indeed lead to lower lows.

On the technical side, the daily level is still in a bearish trend structure. Yesterday's rise did not sustain, and due to today's further decline, it is basically close to engulfing yesterday's gains, which has caused the market, which was slightly rising, to return to a weak state. Overall, we need to pay attention to the support around the previous retracement low of 107250. If the daily structure refreshes the low again, it will confirm a large cyclical retracement wave starting from the historical high of 124450. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is entering the early stage of a bearish cycle, and combined with the current weak market, we need to watch for a retracement in the daily cycle. The short-term support is around 110000; if it breaks below, it is highly likely to test the lows.

At the four-hour level, the structure is showing a pullback after encountering resistance, forming a small range market in the four-hour chart. In terms of technical indicators, MACD is retreating from the high of the bullish cycle. If it continues to decline, it will indicate that the market is about to enter a bearish cycle. Currently, under the overall weak market, if it enters a bearish cycle, the retracement will definitely go lower.

In terms of operations, the stop-loss for short positions around 114000 can be moved down to continue holding. Currently, we still expect the market to continue to decline. If we are to enter long positions later, we may do so below 110000. If the market changes, we will adjust our layout based on real-time market movements.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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