Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night, Old Bao's speech was just a tape recorder, repeating the same few clichéd lines from last week's interest rate meeting. He was a bit dovish, but there was no substantial content, and the market couldn't be bothered. The Nasdaq fell slightly by 1%, and our crypto circle barely reacted, with no signs of any significant movement.

The key point is that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have already opened up completely, and two more cuts within the year are almost a certainty. But Old Bao had that look of "guess if I will cut," providing no commitments throughout, leading to a market sentiment that is just a retreat after expectations were fulfilled.

In plain language, since the interest rate cut cycle has begun, what everyone is watching next are the employment and economic growth figures. Because during the interest rate cut cycle, the market is playing with recession expectations, and everyone is afraid of missing out.

After going through Old Bao's speech last night, it was still the same few bland statements: short-term inflation risks are skewed upward, employment risks are skewed downward, and decisions will be made based on data at each meeting. Well, another round of tasteless repetition, completely lacking focus.

The host even asked him if the next two cuts would be steady, and he directly avoided the question, brushing it off with a "guess." It was eye-rolling, and the US stock market dropped a bit as well.

Interestingly, the expectations for interest rate cuts have actually increased, with the probability of a cut in October soaring from 91.9% to 94.1%. This indicates that last night's market drop was not due to fears of no cut in October, but rather concerns that the Federal Reserve is moving too slowly.

If the labor market truly collapses, the US economy could face a hard landing. In simple terms, the drop is a drop, but it feels more like a concern about recession rather than a denial of the interest rate cuts themselves, so the downward trend may be limited.

This week's market will be influenced by the PCE, while next week's non-farm payrolls will be the main event. Speaking of crypto, the sharp drop in Bitcoin this week is a fact, and that big bearish candle has severely impacted the structure. Regardless of how bearish or bullish you are, you have to accept reality.

Although I don't think there will be a continued crash, because this wave of increase didn't accumulate much momentum, the space for a drop is also limited, but the time for recovery will definitely be extended.

For those who like to go long, don't rush; wait for a decent divergence or oversold signal before entering. Those looking to short can take advantage of the rebound for some short positions, but pay attention to the rhythm and be patient for another day or two.

Back to the market, the short-term path for Bitcoin is likely to first look at 105K, which is basically stable, followed by a rebound to 112K, and after the rebound, it will continue to drop. The ultimate target I see is at most 93.5K, which is roughly the endpoint of this round of downward adjustment.

From September to October is the repair period for the oscillating decline, and by November, when the bottom is explored, a new round of upward momentum is likely to restart. The general direction hasn't changed; it just needs time to consume patience.

On the Ethereum side, I mentioned in my analysis yesterday that the trend resembles that of June. Some people complained that my position was too wide, so let's look closer. Since Ethereum tested 4000 on August 20 and rebounded, many have regarded 4000 as the last line of defense, believing it cannot be broken.

Once it breaks, panic selling will ensue, and both retail and institutional investors will get scared, amplifying market panic. It is currently stuck at a key support level, and long positions are increasing, indicating that a group of people is betting on a rebound.

However, without institutional support, it relies entirely on retail investors, making it difficult to generate a significant market movement. If it really surges, my first target will be 4420; if it can't hold, then I can only look directly at 3850…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 114700

First Resistance Level: 113100

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 110700

Second Support Level: 109300

Bitcoin still hasn't managed to regain the trend line it broke below, and it is moving sideways in a downtrend. If this pattern drags on, it is likely to lead to a stepwise decline, with downward risks amplifying.

Currently, the first support level to watch is 110.7K, which is a key short-term position. If 111.5K breaks, be cautious of an accelerated drop. There is hope for a rebound around 110.7K, but if the rebound lacks volume, it is a false rebound.

The RSI is still in the oversold zone, meaning a technical rebound could happen at any time. However, as long as it doesn't reclaim the 200MA, the direction remains bearish. The lower limit is seen at the 107~109K range, which is the area that held up after the previous sell-off. If it can hold, then the short-term bottom is likely here.

The first resistance at 113.1K is the position that couldn't be surpassed yesterday, serving as the main short-term defense line. If it can break through with volume, we might see higher levels. The second resistance at 114.7K needs to be supported by favorable data tonight; after breaking 113K, the target for the next push is likely to be met but will probably be corrected afterward.

The first support at 110.7K is currently the most critical lower defense line; whether it can stabilize in the short term depends on this level. The second support at 109.3K may be directly tested during a sharp drop; this area is also the historical support zone of 107~109K, suitable for gradual low buying.

The main theme for the day remains bearish; don't chase long positions. If there is a rebound, first look at the volume before considering a short position. If the market continues to decline, be patient and wait; short the rebound without expecting a major reversal. Bottom signals have not yet appeared, so don't rush to catch the bottom.

9.24 Master’s Band Trading Reference:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 113100-113900 range in batches, Target: 110700-109300

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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