This week, the cryptocurrency market completed its trading cycle, and the overall trend is clearly visible. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown significant divergence in their market performance, the short-term market direction has gradually become clear, providing key reference points for investors' subsequent operational strategies.

1. Weekly Market Review: Bitcoin Fluctuates Back to Starting Point, Ethereum Continues to Weaken

(1) Bitcoin: Insufficient Upward Momentum, Fluctuates Back to Starting Point

This week, Bitcoin's market trajectory exhibited a "rise first, then fall" characteristic. In the early part of the week, the price experienced a slight increase, giving market participants hope for a breakout. However, the buying power in the market failed to sustain, leading to a gradual decline, ultimately returning to the initial position where the upward trend began this week.

This trend reflects a significant divergence in the market regarding key price levels, with short-term funds adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. In the absence of stronger positive news to stimulate the market, bulls find it difficult to gather enough momentum to push the price beyond the current fluctuation range, leaving the market temporarily in a state of balance.

(2) Ethereum: Continued Weak Performance, Showing a Slow Downward Trend

Compared to Bitcoin's fluctuations, Ethereum's performance this week has been weaker, showing a continuous slow decline. Throughout the trading week, Ethereum hardly experienced any significant rebound, and there was no noticeable buying power entering the market, with downward pressure consistently present.

From the perspective of influencing factors, on one hand, Ethereum has recently lacked major positive events to boost market sentiment, making it difficult to form an independent upward drive; on the other hand, the overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is generally low, and the insufficient liquidity environment further exacerbates Ethereum's downward pressure, making it hard to escape the weak pattern.

2. Short-term Trend Analysis: Market Releases Positive Signals, Rebound Expectations Rise

From a short-term technical perspective, there have been noteworthy positive signals on the hourly chart, providing optimistic support for future market movements. Currently, the price is fluctuating between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, which indicates that the market is continuously accumulating momentum in preparation for future directional choices.

At the same time, recent candlestick patterns frequently show candles with long lower shadows, indicating that bearish forces have significantly weakened near the current price level, and downward momentum is nearing exhaustion. Meanwhile, support from below is gradually becoming evident, with some bottom-fishing and wait-and-see funds starting to enter the market, slowly accumulating buying power.

After this week's adjustments, market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious observation to warming up, with investors' expectations for a short-term rebound significantly increasing. Whether from the technical perspective of needing to correct the previous rapid decline or from the logic that market funds are likely to gradually return, the possibility of the market continuing its rebound trend is relatively high. Therefore, from a short-term perspective, we maintain a bullish judgment on the market, and the operational strategy can revolve around "building long positions on dips."

3. Practical Strategy Recommendations: Seize Retracement Opportunities, Strictly Control Risk Exposure

(1) Accurately Identify Support Levels, Build Positions on Retracements

In terms of specific operations, investors should focus on key support levels after price retracements as the core reference for building long positions.

• Bitcoin: Pay close attention to the initial position where the upward trend started this week. If the price retraces to this range and shows signs of stabilization (such as sideways consolidation or bullish candlestick patterns), then consider entering long positions.

• Ethereum: Monitor the lower support level of the recent fluctuation range. If the price falls to this level and does not continue to decline, accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, consider entering long positions with a light position.

(2) Strengthen Position Management, Beware of Market Uncertainty

Although the current market rebound signals are quite evident, the cryptocurrency market itself is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, and potential risks should still be heeded. Therefore, position control remains a core aspect of operations. It is recommended that investors reasonably control their position sizes, avoid excessive leverage, and reserve sufficient funds to cope with potential sudden fluctuations, preventing a single trade from causing a significant impact on the overall account.

Additionally, during the weekend, closely monitor significant global news changes related to cryptocurrencies (such as regulatory policy adjustments, important industry dynamics, etc.). If unexpected positive or negative news arises, timely adjustments to established operational strategies are necessary, balancing the opportunity to seize rebounds while managing risks.

4. Summary and Outlook

In summary, although the cryptocurrency market experienced a divergence adjustment between Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, positive factors within the market are gradually accumulating. In the short term, both technical signals and market sentiment are showing favorable trends, providing strong support for a rebound.

For investors, it is advisable to firmly adopt a short-term bullish mindset, patiently waiting for opportunities to build positions as prices retrace to key support levels, and to seize the operational window brought by market corrective rebounds. At the same time, always maintain a respectful awareness of market risks, and through strict position management and flexible strategy adjustments, achieve stable operations amidst volatility.

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If you are feeling lost—unable to understand technology, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, unclear about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while bottom-fishing, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent operations, it's better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time operations. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

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