Author: cole

In the crypto world, "token issuance" can always ignite the market. When Coinbase—the most compliant "regular army" in the industry—shifted its stance on the Layer 2 network Base from "never issuing tokens" to "exploring issuance," everyone understood that a grand performance was about to unfold.

This is not just another token issuance; it is a well-thought-out strategic maneuver by Coinbase aimed at transforming Base from a traffic entry point into a self-sustaining economic center. Will this yet-to-be-born token be the "rocket fuel" that ignites a bull market, or will it be another "peak at launch" capital story? To answer this question, we must delve into the intricacies of Base and analyze the vulnerabilities behind its shiny data.

From "NO" to "YES"—Why Base Must Issue Tokens

Once upon a time, Base was a breath of fresh air in the Layer 2 world, with its leadership repeatedly emphasizing "no plans for token issuance." However, the winds have changed. Base founder Jesse Pollak and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have now publicly stated that the team is "exploring the issuance of a native token" and believes it is an excellent tool for accelerating decentralization and ecological growth.

The official reasoning is grand and "politically correct": to achieve complete decentralization of the network. Currently, Base's core sequencer is still centrally controlled by Coinbase, and issuing tokens can attract independent nodes through incentive mechanisms, which is a necessary step toward true decentralization. This technology-driven rhetoric aligns with the spirit of the crypto world and provides a "compliance" shield against regulatory scrutiny.

However, the data reveals a harsher reality: Base is facing severe capital outflow. Data shows that in the past three quarters, Base has experienced a net outflow of up to $4.6 billion, with funds primarily flowing back to the Ethereum mainnet. This indicates that, despite Base successfully attracting a massive user base with Coinbase's traffic—especially during the Meme coin and SocialFi (social finance) craze—it lacks "user stickiness." Capital is like mercenaries, coming and going swiftly.

Base risks becoming a low-cost "transit station." Meanwhile, its competitors Arbitrum and Optimism have already built solid economic moats with their tokens. Therefore, issuing tokens for Base is less about philosophical evolution and more about survival necessity. Its core economic goal is singular: to anchor capital. Through token incentives, it aims to transform speculative "tourists" into long-term "residents," creating a self-reinforcing economic loop.

A Song of Ice and Fire—A Comprehensive Scan of the Base Ecosystem

To understand the power of the Base token, one must first see its current landscape. On-chain data paints a picture of ice and fire interwoven: user activity is thriving, but capital depth remains relatively cool.

From the data perspective, Base is undoubtedly a top player. Its TVL exceeds $5 billion. But the most astonishing aspect is its transaction processing capability, with an average TPS of 148.77, far surpassing Arbitrum's 22.49. The network's daily active addresses are close to a million, with annual network revenue expected to reach $75 million. These figures clearly reveal Base's uniqueness: it is an undisputed giant in user activity but still a follower in capital volume. Base has solved the problem of "how to attract users"; now it needs to use tokens to address the question of "how to retain them."

Base's application ecosystem exhibits a peculiar "leverage structure." On one end are multi-chain giants like Uniswap and Aave, contributing most of the TVL. On the other end are vibrant Meme coins. The most strategically valuable are the "native protocols" sandwiched in between—they are Base's true moat and the core target for future token incentives.

• DeFi: In the decentralized finance sector, Base's native automated market maker (AMM) Aerodrome Finance is rising at an astonishing speed, with its TVL exceeding $1.1 billion, aiming to become the central liquidity hub of Base. In the lending market, the native protocol SeamlessFi has also begun to shine.

• SocialFi: This is Base's unique trump card. The phenomenal application Friend.tech has not only brought massive traffic to Base but also pioneered a new on-chain social monetization model. Additionally, the decentralized social protocol Farcaster is thriving here.

• Gaming and NFTs: This sector is still in its early stages, with no breakout hits yet. However, Base's low gas fee environment is the best soil for the development of on-chain games, and a native token could serve as a catalyst to attract top gaming studios.

Redistribution of Wealth—Who Will Be the Biggest Winner

The issuance of the Base token will be an unprecedented redistribution of wealth.

• Ecosystem Protocols: For native protocols like Aerodrome and SeamlessFi, the Base token will be "ammunition" for them to compete head-on with multi-chain giants.

• Users and Community: Token issuance will bring about a wealth effect, and the token will also empower community governance, fostering a profound sense of "ownership."

• Base Network: The token treasury will enable Base to break free from its dependence on Coinbase, becoming a public product capable of self-sustaining and self-developing.

• Coinbase: This may be the most exciting part. Currently, Base contributes less than 1% to Coinbase's total revenue. However, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of a Base token could reach hundreds of billions of dollars. This means that Coinbase is playing a clever capital magic trick: giving up a negligible operational income in exchange for a potentially massive asset worth hundreds of billions. Through token issuance and decentralization, Coinbase can not only avoid regulatory risks but also transform a small profit into a huge asset.

Conclusion

Base's exploration of token issuance is a well-considered strategic necessity. It marks Base's transition from a successful "traffic acquisition machine" to a self-sustaining "on-chain economy."

Will Base's token issuance create a "big bang" of hype like Arbitrum, potentially leading to catastrophic sell-offs? Or will it follow Optimism's path, guiding the market smoothly through phased and narrative-driven approaches, focusing the community's attention on long-term development?

Given Base's close ties to Coinbase and its "compliance-first" stance, the latter possibility seems more likely. Regardless of the path chosen, Base holds a trump card: the massive retail user base brought by Coinbase and its unique SocialFi ecosystem.

For all participants in the crypto world, this grand performance is worth your close attention.

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