Good morning, crypto friends! Today is Friday, September 19, 2025, and I am Wang Yibo. In this cryptocurrency space full of opportunities and challenges, let us grasp the latest market trends together and explore investment directions. Iron fans, remember to check in and like to boost wealth growth!
- Macroeconomic Market Dynamics
On Thursday, the U.S. initial jobless claims data experienced a major blunder. The number of initial jobless claims saw the largest decline in nearly four years, reversing the significant increase from the previous week. However, hours later, it was reported that the continuing claims data from North Carolina was severely underestimated by over 19,000 people, and the Labor Department is still investigating. As a result, spot gold plummeted by over $40. In the U.S. stock market, performance was impressive, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.27%, the S&P 500 index up by 0.48%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.94%, all reaching new historical closing highs. Intel (INTC.O) surged by 22.7%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose by over 3%, but Tesla (TSLA.O) fell by 2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is only 8.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 91.9%; the probability of maintaining rates in December is 0.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 15.4% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 83.9%. The market has strong expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency space. Keep following Yibo for real-time information to better respond to market changes and uncover investment opportunities.
- Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin's overall market is currently maintaining a high position. It faced resistance at the 118,000 mark during two surges in the early morning, stopping around 117,800. From a structural perspective, after a rebound from the bottom, it has risen to the upper Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Bands noticeably narrowing, highlighting a volatile pattern. The chart shows "large bearish followed by small bullish," indicating some release of bullish momentum, but the rebound strength is insufficient, and a strong reversal has not yet formed.
The key going forward is whether the 118,000 resistance level can be effectively broken. If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes, the upward space will further open, targeting the 120,000 round number. This is not only an important technical resistance level but also a signal of market sentiment and strengthening bullish momentum, likely to initiate a new trend. Conversely, if it continues to be pressured below this resistance level, it indicates that the market is still under bearish pressure, and the current rebound is merely a technical correction. One can consider positioning short orders based on the resistance level to continue trend operations.
- Ethereum Market Analysis
Ethereum touched 4642 in the morning before facing pressure and retracing, finding support around 4550 and stabilizing. It is currently in a high-level sideways consolidation, with repeated washouts between bulls and bears, and the direction remains unclear. After another surge to around 4634 in the early morning, it has now pulled back to around 4570.
On the four-hour level, although there was an upward movement after breaking through the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, bearish pressure has suppressed the continuation of bullish momentum, with many upper shadows on the bullish candlesticks indicating significant selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, suggesting a potential downward reversal in the future. Key attention should be paid to the battle for the 4650 - 4680 range; if the bulls can effectively break through this range, further upward movement is expected; conversely, if the bears successfully suppress here, it may trigger a new round of downward movement.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, can’t read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck while trying to catch the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, or miss out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends should be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily moving forward in the market with you.
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