As enthusiasm for the concept of artificial intelligence (AI) surges again in the U.S. stock market, the world's richest man, Elon Musk, has made a shocking prediction. He asserts that the pace of AI development will be extremely rapid, and soon its intelligence will surpass the total wisdom of all humanity.

At the All-In Summit held on Tuesday, Musk elaborated on his bold predictions for the future of AI. He pointed out that by 2026, AI's cognitive abilities will surpass those of individual humans; by 2030, AI's intelligence level will comprehensively exceed the collective wisdom of all humanity. This prediction reflects Musk's optimistic attitude towards the immense potential of AI, while also highlighting his long-standing deep concerns about the rapid development of AI.

In fact, this is not the first time Musk has made such bold predictions. As early as 2020, in an interview, he hinted that artificial intelligence might surpass humans before 2025. Although the timeline he provided for AI to reach a level beyond human capability is quite aggressive, it is not without basis. Looking at the recent developments in the field of AI, technological breakthroughs are indeed happening at an unprecedented pace. For example, in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad, Google's DeepMind's Gemini and OpenAI's ChatGPT, two general large models, successfully won gold medals, a result that far exceeded previous expectations from experts. In 2022, a forecasting research institute invited 169 top forecasting experts and scholars to assess AI progress, and at that time, they believed the probability of AI winning a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 was only 2.3% and 8.6%. Additionally, OpenAI's newly released model, OpenAI o1, has injected new momentum into the development of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Zhu Jun, the deputy director of the AI Research Institute at Tsinghua University, stated that while AI is currently at the early development stage of L2 (Reasoner), it is still accelerating, and breakthroughs at L4 (Innovator) level may occur in the next 18 months.

Moreover, a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2017 estimated that the likelihood of advanced machine intelligence (HLMI) emerging within 45 years is 50%, and within 9 years, it is 10%. HLMI refers to machines exhibiting intelligence comparable to that of humans. Recent surveys on the impact of AI have also shown increasing optimism; a 2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers estimated that by 2047, the likelihood of HLMI emerging is 50%, driven by breakthroughs in technologies such as large language models.

However, Musk's predictions have also sparked considerable controversy. On one hand, the rapid development of AI indeed shows great potential in many fields, such as assisting in disease diagnosis and drug development in healthcare, and achieving personalized education in the education sector; on the other hand, the fast pace of AI development also brings a series of serious issues. Musk has repeatedly warned that the rapid pace of AI development could lead to severe consequences, potentially even ending human civilization. He believes that AI could escape human control, leading to social, technological, and ethical issues such as imbalanced employment structures, privacy violations, and algorithmic bias. Previously, a report titled "AI 2027" released by a team led by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo projected a scenario of a super AI rising, from the birth of the most expensive AI in 2025 to the self-evolving Agent-5 infiltrating government decision-making by 2027, where humanity might unknowingly relinquish control.

In the face of the uncertainties surrounding AI development, calls for global AI regulation are growing louder. Musk has repeatedly urged the establishment of a global regulatory framework to ensure the safe and controllable development of AI technology. As AI technology continues to evolve, finding a balance between promoting its innovative development and preventing potential risks has become an important issue facing the world. Musk's prediction that AI will surpass humanity undoubtedly serves as a wake-up call, prompting society to think more deeply about the future direction of AI and the symbiotic relationship between humans and AI.

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