Similarly, limited to my own understanding, my understanding may not necessarily be correct.

I personally believe that we are currently in the early or mid-stage of stagflation, and we are still quite far from a recession. It is even uncertain whether we will definitely enter a recession, as the current situation is clearly a result of interest rates. If Trump ignores inflation and lowers interest rates, it could indeed bring about a change in the economy, but the risk of inflation may accumulate increasingly.

If Trump does not intervene in the market and allows the Federal Reserve to make decisions, the probability of an economic recession may increase, and it is even possible that a substantial recession could occur by 2026. However, the more severe the recession, the more vigorous the recovery period afterward will be, meaning that the stimulus will also be more intense.

This is also why I am more optimistic about 2027 and 2028, especially since 2028 should mark a new economic cycle.

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