I am just expressing my own opinion, and my opinion may not be correct.

First of all, the current game is definitely between Trump and the Federal Reserve. We have discussed this topic 100 times; Trump is not interested in the data, he just wants interest rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve is more focused on inflation and economic data, needing balance.

Therefore, from the starting point, Trump and the Federal Reserve are inherently incompatible, which leads to Trump's control over the Federal Reserve becoming the main line of the game before Powell's departure in May 2026. If Trump cannot exert pressure on the Federal Reserve before Powell's term ends, then according to the Federal Reserve's trajectory, let alone an economic recession, economic downturn and stagflation are highly likely.

Moreover, Trump's disadvantage in the game will also weaken his political power. After all, high interest rates put pressure on employment, real estate, and other economic activities, which is not good for the Republican Party in the midterm elections. Not to mention the first three quarters, just looking at the data before May, we need to pay more attention to economic data. The risk of economic downturn makes the market uncomfortable, and rising inflation also makes the economic market uneasy.

From May until the midterm elections in November, there are still six months left; we will see what Trump can do.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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