PPI tomorrow (very bad re-inflationary trend as of late) and CPI on Thursday (moderate re-inflationary trend) are going to be big volatility events.

The question is about the direction of the move.

Markets have, overall, been able to grind higher on reaccelerating inflation data since April 2025... but that's primarily due to the fact that CPI/PCE inflation data haven't been moving significantly higher.

The market has been priced for accelerating inflation.

But the key distinction here is that the market has been priced for moderately accelerating inflation data.

The big jump in PPI inflation hasn't (yet) made its way into consumer prices to a significant degree.

At some point, unless PPI inflation cools or abates, that ripple effect will occur.

Both 1M and 3M Treasury yields are telling me that a cut is coming next week, barring a massive upside surprise in the inflationary data.

My point has been that the timing of cuts is actually somewhat irrelevant, so long as cuts are coming.

The market hasn't needed imminent rate cuts for the past 8 months to produce strong returns and continuous new all-time highs, regardless of short-term risk events.

Fun times ahead.

Lock in.

Stay nimble.

Embrace nuance.

And good luck, friends.

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