$OCTO surges 3000%: Worldcoin treasury + BitMine arbitrage ignites

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14 hours ago

On September 8, 2025, Eightco (NASDAQ: $OCTO) announced a private fundraising round and designated Worldcoin (WLD) as the company's primary reserve asset. On the same day, the stock price surged approximately 3,008.97%, with the market capitalization jumping from millions to billions in a short period, making it one of the most dramatic events in the market that day. The "volume engine" behind this event included: a large-scale private placement (totaling approximately $270 million), BitMine ($BMNR) subscribing for about 13,698,630 shares at $1.46/share to secure a strategic position, and the amplifying effect of celebrity/institution endorsements along with speculative funds in the market.

Event Facts

  • Eightco announced the pricing of approximately 171,230,877 shares in a private placement at $1.46/share, expecting to raise about $250M; an additional 13,698,630 shares will be sold at the same price to BitMine, raising $20M, totaling approximately $270M, with plans to use the raised funds to purchase WLD and to change the trading code to "ORBS." (The transaction is expected to be completed around September 11, 2025, pending Nasdaq approval).

  • BitMine, led by Tom Lee, became a focal point of media and market attention as one of the strategic investors; company executives publicly expressed support for this strategy in the announcement.

  • The abnormal surge in stock price and trading volume resulted in extreme valuation fluctuations in a short time: during the intraday and closing phases after the announcement, the price briefly soared to several dozen dollars, with media and brokerages reporting "thousand-fold increases / massive changes in market capitalization."

  • As of the most recent public quarterly report (September 30, 2024), Eightco reported shareholders' equity (book equity) of approximately $13,049,970; the number of common shares outstanding was about 3,044,744 shares.

  • This private placement intends to issue: 171,232,877 shares (private placement) + 13,698,630 shares (to BitMine) = 184,931,507 shares.

  • The pro-forma number of shares outstanding after the public relations/transaction completion = 3,044,744 + 184,931,507 = 187,976,251 shares (estimated post-merger). (This number is a summation estimate and may be adjusted due to transaction hedging, commitments, or subsequent placements).

  • The market price on that day (intraday/closing reference) sampled approximately $45.08/share (this represents the price range reported by multiple market sources and media).

Calculations

  1. Pro-forma market capitalization = 187,976,251 shares × $45.08 ≈ $8,473,969,395 ≈ $8.47B.

  2. Company's book net assets (book equity) + raised funds ≈ $13,049,970 + $270,000,000 = $283,049,970 (here, the total raised amount of $270M is used as the most significant asset injection item, not yet deducting underwriting fees and other expenses).

  3. Estimated NAV (per share) = $283,049,970 ÷ 187,976,251 ≈ $1.506 / share.

  4. mNAV (market price / NAV) = $45.08 ÷ $1.506 ≈ 29.9 × — meaning the market transaction price is approximately 30 times its "conservative pro-forma NAV."

Example of BitMine's ($BMNR) short-term book profit:

  • BitMine entered with $20M (13,698,630 shares × $1.46); if the stock price is $45.08, its position value ≈ 13,698,630 × $45.08 ≈ $617.5M, with an unrealized profit of ≈ $597.5M (about 30×). (This calculation is based on the announced share count and the price on that day).

Interpretation and Risk Points (Why It Happened / What to Watch Next)

  1. Information and Leverage Amplification: The large scale of the private placement, the topic nature of the asset (WLD) related to Sam Altman/World projects, endorsements from institutions and celebrities (Dan Ives, Tom Lee / BitMine, etc.), all acted as "catalysts" triggering a concentrated influx of scattered speculative funds. The media + social platform amplification effect can create multiples on stocks with extremely low liquidity (especially when the company has very few shares outstanding).

  2. Extreme Mismatch: Valuation does not match physical assets. The aforementioned mNAV ≈ 30× indicates that market pricing is almost entirely based on "future imagination (expectations for WLD, rebranding expectations, celebrity effects)" rather than current assets and cash flows; this valuation disconnection is usually accompanied by high drawdown risks.

  3. Execution and Regulatory Risks: The transaction requires Nasdaq approval and can only convert the raised funds into WLD after closing; Worldcoin's compliance and privacy controversies may also attract regulatory scrutiny (different jurisdictions have varying attitudes toward biometrics/privacy). If the transaction is delayed, modified, or if WLD prices drop significantly, the stock price may rapidly correct.

  4. The Game Between Short-term Bulls and Bears: In such events, liquidity and information asymmetry can be amplified by high-frequency/arbitrage funds (including short squeezes, tight supply of shares, and covering trades), leading to extremely volatile short-term fluctuations.

Eightco's recent explosion from a small-cap to a topic stock is fundamentally driven by a massive private placement aimed at a hot project (Worldcoin) + institutional/celebrity endorsements + the market's short-term emotional amplification. From a financial perspective: even if the $270 million is fully counted as company assets, its pro-forma NAV is still only about $1.5/share, while the current transaction price shows a huge gap (nearly 30 times), indicating that the short-term speculative premium is extremely high, and the drawdown risk is also very high. Readers intending to participate should fully recognize the "liquidity risk, regulatory uncertainty, and the uncertainty of actual fundraising and transaction completion."

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