After Shimo Shishi's resignation on Sunday, the market environment has slightly eased, but the core game remains between Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump is adamant about a rapid interest rate cut, while the Federal Reserve remains conservative, emphasizing inflation and economic stability. JPMorgan believes that the potential interest rate cut in September may have "fully priced in" the benefits, and more attention should be paid to the dot plot, which directly reveals the committee's expectations for the future interest rate path. If the interest rate cut reaches 75 basis points in 2025 and another 200 basis points in 2026, the market will still respond optimistically; conversely, if only a limited reduction is maintained, pessimistic sentiment may rise.

Although the turnover rate of $BTC rebounded after the weekend, it is still lower than the same period last week, with trading volume significantly declining, indicating that investors are weary of the current price and choosing to wait for the results in September. The labor market is no longer a suspense, and the real impact lies in the PPI and CPI data. Even if inflation rises in the short term, the market still firmly believes in the necessity of interest rate cuts under economic downward pressure. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly and firmly rejects a rate cut in September, the scene could be quite spectacular.

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