Recently, the challenge in the market lies in understanding the relationship between interest rate cuts and the economy. An interest rate cut is not a standalone positive factor; it must be viewed in the context of the economic background. When the economy is strong, a rate cut acts like a preemptive anesthetic, allowing the market to transition smoothly; however, a rate cut during an economic downturn resembles "closing the barn door after the horse has bolted," indicating that the pain of recession has already occurred. Even with further rate cuts, the market will still feel uneasy.

Bitcoin has shown weak performance recently, largely due to the speculation of short-term investors, while long-term holders remain unfazed. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, but the market's interpretation is key; the interplay between Trump and the Federal Reserve will dominate sentiment. Currently, there is a slight easing of sentiment after the U.S. stock market closes, which is a good thing for controlling weekend volatility.

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