Recently, many friends have been asking about the matter of $MSTR entering the S&P 500. I created a mind map outlining the application standards. Generally speaking, MSTR meets the criteria, but there is a slight discrepancy: although MSTR is "profitable," most of the profits are paper gains, which are derived from holding $BTC. Whether this part will be recognized by the S&P is something I cannot guarantee 100%.

If the index committee recognizes unrealized gains from BTC as "qualified profits," then it has met the conditions. However, if the committee insists that core indicators must be based on profits from main business operations, it may be rejected.

Furthermore, MSTR's main business logic revolves around holding Bitcoin, which means that both profits and losses stem from changes in BTC prices. This may lead the index committee to worry that profits are highly dependent on BTC price fluctuations rather than core business operations. If the green light is given, it could easily lead to a situation where MSTR enters the S&P through unconventional means.

Additionally, looking at MSTR's performance, it has fallen for two consecutive trading days. Although this is partly due to Bitcoin and Nasdaq factors, if the market truly expected MSTR to succeed in entering, there should at least be some movement, similar to when Robinhood was rumored to be entering, which resulted in a significant surge.

Therefore, my personal view is that if it passes, it will definitely be a positive for both BTC and MSTR. I personally hold MSTR, but in reality, I am not very optimistic about this passing. Of course, I hope it does pass. And my judgment may not necessarily be correct.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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