As the funding landscape in the cryptocurrency space rapidly changes, Bitcoin has made a comeback. This Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted a staggering $332.7 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding $100 million, ending the dominance Ethereum had enjoyed over the past few weeks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $110,967, down about 10% from its historical high of $124,128 reached in mid-August.
As we move into September, the atmosphere in the crypto market appears particularly uneasy. This month's crypto market will be influenced by the latest interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the market widely believing there is a 91.7% chance that the Fed will restart rate cuts this month, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 8.3%.
It is also noteworthy that before the FOMC meeting, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the non-farm payroll report for August this Friday at 20:30. This report will reveal employment growth, unemployment rates, and other key labor market indicators in the U.S. If the non-farm payroll report shows weakness in the labor market, it will further intensify expectations for Fed rate cuts; conversely, if the labor market remains strong, the likelihood of rate cuts may face obstacles or uncertainties.
Since 2011, September has been the only month where Bitcoin's average return rate is negative, with an average decline of 4.6%. However, relying solely on seasonal effects cannot dictate the market; it is essential to pay attention to new macroeconomic factors and several significant financial data set to be released.
On Thursday at 20:15 Beijing time, the U.S. ADP employment change data for August will be released, expected to show an increase of 65,000 jobs. In addition to the ADP employment data, other heavyweight data such as initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30, trade balance, and services PMI will be announced subsequently.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Currently, the price is fluctuating around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $111,365. In the previous article, resistance levels were mentioned at the 0.382 retracement level of $113,870, the 0.5 retracement level of $115,896, and the 0.618 retracement level of $117,919. After several days of testing, these levels have not been reached and have begun to retrace. The support area below is in the range of $111,000-$111,300, which is the support band near the 0.236 retracement level, while $107,300 serves as a strong support level at the 0.0 retracement level.
From a technical indicator perspective, the Bollinger Bands are showing a contraction, with the middle band located around $111,500, and the current Bitcoin price is closely following the middle band. The upper band resistance is in the range of $112,800-$113,000, while the lower band support is around $108,000. This contraction pattern indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase, and a directional breakout may occur in conjunction with other indicators.
The MACD indicator shows that the DIF line and DEA line have formed a golden cross below the zero line and are tending to flatten out, with the MACD red histogram continuously shortening. If the DIF line can successfully cross above the zero line, the market will welcome a stronger rebound; conversely, if it turns downward, it may test the $108,000 support level. The KDJ indicator has formed a death cross from a high position and is currently in the neutral zone of 40-50, indicating that the market is in an adjustment state.
In summary, the key short-term support level is in the range of $111,000-$111,300, with strong support near $107,300. The upper rebound target range is $113,800-$115,800. If the price can hold the $111,000 support, it is expected to maintain a consolidation phase before entering a rebound mode, targeting $113,800-$115,800. If it fails to hold $111,000, it may further test the $108,000-$107,300 support area. The current price is at a critical juncture, and close attention should be paid to the battle around the $111,000 level.
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Time of writing: (2025-09-04, 18:30)
(Written by: Daxian Talks Coins) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., having been involved in the financial market for many years and possessing rich practical experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution.
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