Today's homework has started to increase in difficulty. It was mentioned before that starting Wednesday, we would enter the game of the labor market. Today's U.S. job vacancy data has fallen below the number of unemployed for the first time since the pandemic. This means that previously, as long as unemployed individuals were willing to find work, there were plenty of opportunities. Whether the jobs were suitable or not is another matter, but at least there were options for employment. However, with the release of this data, the U.S. is now facing difficulties in job searching.

The most direct representation of this is that the development of the U.S. economy has hit a bottleneck, with the labor market and economy both facing potential downturns. This raises concerns about the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. Of course, today both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies are rising, mainly due to the increased probability of a rate cut in September, which currently stands at around 95%, a relatively high figure. This is likely the reason for the market's rise, but it feels like celebrating at a funeral.

Of course, it's still a bit early to say this. Although there are signs of economic downturn, it is still manageable for now. If interest rates can be cut early, there may still be a chance for small and medium-sized enterprises to breathe, which could potentially boost employment. However, for the Federal Reserve, the choice between ensuring inflation decreases or preventing an economic downturn is not an easy one. Even in 2022 and 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, the Fed chose the former, and now with Trump back, it's hard to say.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has slightly increased today, and the turnover data is within a normal range. There is also a rise in investor panic sentiment, with investors holding positions at a cost of over $100,000 being the main force behind the turnover, while earlier investors have not seen much change. The market sentiment appears to be relatively stable.

There isn't much to say about the supporting data; it remains very stable. Further employment data will be released on Thursday and Friday, with Thursday's data being a small non-farm report, which may have some impact on market sentiment. However, the most important data will be the non-farm payrolls on Friday. For now, there is nothing better to do but wait.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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