For the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed people in the U.S. (7.24M) has exceeded the number of job vacancies (7.18M). In recent years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, job vacancies have consistently outnumbered the unemployed population, indicating a labor shortage and giving workers more bargaining power.

The current reversal means that the job market is starting to loosen, with fewer job openings and more people looking for work. This indicates a slowdown in economic growth and a cooling phase in the job market.

The U.S. labor market has shifted from "demand exceeding supply" to "supply exceeding demand." While this data may boost expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it was indeed reported today that after the job vacancy data was released, CME's expectation for a rate cut in September rose to 95.4% (peaking at 97%).

However, this is not good news, as it suggests that the U.S. economy may indeed be entering a downturn. The current market rise is likely reminiscent of the situation during the last Jackson Hole annual meeting, where the market was celebrating amidst a backdrop of bad news.

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