Good morning, crypto friends! Today is Wednesday, September 3, 2025, and I am Wang Yibo. As a new day begins, let us delve into the dynamics of the financial market to provide strong references for investment decisions in the crypto space.

【U.S. Stock Market Performance Weakens, Tech Stocks Under Pressure】

Looking back at Tuesday's trading in the U.S. stock market, the overall trend was downward. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially closed down 0.55%, with its constituent stocks showing mixed performance, as declines in some heavyweight stocks severely dragged down the overall index. The S&P 500 index saw a more significant drop of 0.69%, reflecting the overall market weakness more comprehensively due to its broad coverage of 500 companies across various industries. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.82%, with tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA.O) dropping nearly 2% and Apple (AAPL.O) down 1%, indicating that the volatility in tech stocks had a considerable impact on the Nasdaq.

【Changes in Federal Reserve Rate Expectations】

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the market has developed a clearer expectation regarding the future direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. In September, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is only 9.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 90.5%. By October, the probability of maintaining rates further drops to 4.3%, with the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 46.3% and a 50 basis point cut at 49.3%. This market expectation largely stems from recent signs of weakness in U.S. economic data, including instability in the job market and easing inflation data, leading the market to generally believe that the Fed will cut rates to stimulate economic growth, stabilize employment, and keep inflation at target levels.

【Crypto Market Dynamics: Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds, Ethereum Shows Volatility】

In the crypto market, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable rebound in recent trends. After a pullback to a low of 107,391 yesterday morning, it quickly embarked on a rebound journey; during the afternoon session, bullish momentum significantly increased, pushing the price back up to a high of 110,655. Although it briefly dipped to 108,331 in the evening, bulls quickly counterattacked, rebounding rapidly and testing a high of 111,730, before stabilizing above 111,000. From a technical analysis perspective, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to extend upward, providing strong support for Bitcoin's price, which has consistently remained above the middle band in the short term, highlighting the relative advantage of bulls. However, the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating that the price volatility of Bitcoin may decrease in the short term, and the market may enter a consolidation phase. From the volume-price relationship, the previous large bullish candle laid the foundation for the upward trend, and the subsequent price did not break below the key support level of 110,000, further consolidating market confidence in the upward trend. During the upward process, trading volume significantly increased, while it shrank during pullbacks, indicating that bullish funds have not exited on a large scale, and market selling pressure is relatively light. In summary, if Bitcoin can break through the key level of 112,200 with increased volume, the bullish trend is likely to continue, potentially welcoming new upward space; conversely, if it fails to break through effectively and volume is insufficient, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of another pullback.

Ethereum's recent performance has shown a pattern of fluctuations. It started the morning with a rebound from a low of 4,209, reaching a high of 4,414 during the afternoon before pulling back; in the evening, it fell to around 4,270 before rebounding, but bullish volume was clearly insufficient, leading to another decline after testing the 4,395 level, dropping to a low of 4,255 in the early morning, and then slightly rising, currently trading around 4,320. Analyzing the overall trend, Ethereum showed weakness and a decline after reaching the second resistance level. Although it is currently in a rebound phase, and this rebound appears relatively strong, the overall trend has not fundamentally changed. For Ethereum's future performance, it is crucial to pay attention to the key level of 4,380; only by successfully stabilizing above this level can the rebound trend be expected to continue, with upper resistance levels to watch at 4,420, 4,480, and 4,520. Conversely, if it cannot stabilize above 4,380, it indicates insufficient rebound strength, and it is likely to continue declining. Investors should closely monitor the breakout of these key levels to accurately grasp Ethereum's trend direction.

It is worth noting that the previous deep pullback in the crypto market was analyzed to be triggered by ancient whales selling large amounts of Bitcoin and shifting to increase their holdings in Ethereum, leading many whale institutions and retail investors to follow suit, exacerbating market volatility. However, spot ETFs remained inactive during this process, and the entire market trend resembled a carefully orchestrated diversion, resulting in a dual explosion of long and short positions in the contract market. In such a complex and volatile market environment, paying attention to real-time market dynamics is particularly important. I recommend all crypto friends to continue following my analysis to seize the best trading opportunities in a timely manner.

That concludes today's crypto morning report. I hope it helps all crypto friends better understand market dynamics, maintain sharp insights in investment decisions, seize potential opportunities, and avoid risks.

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If you are feeling lost—unable to understand technology, unsure how to read charts, not knowing when to enter the market, unable to set stop losses, unclear about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing losses. Instead of frequent trading, it is better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily progressing with you in the market.

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