Gu Yue: Evening market analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the market in the golden autumn of September will face another plunge.

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谷月
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3 days ago

Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently (September 1, 2025) experiencing an overall correction, with market sentiment being cautious. Below, I will analyze the latest data and market information for you.

📊 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Outlook Today

1️⃣ Current Overall Market Overview

The cryptocurrency market is showing an overall downward trend today. Data indicates that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently around $3.75 trillion, down 1.41% in the past 24 hours. The market sentiment index is at 39/100, in the "fear" range, reflecting investors' cautious attitude amid current macro uncertainties.

2️⃣ Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis

The current price of Bitcoin is $107,504.05, down 1.10% in the past 24 hours, with a decline of 4.49% over the past week. Its market capitalization is $2.15 trillion, maintaining its dominant position in the cryptocurrency market (dominance rate of 57.31%).

Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently facing a test of key support levels. The market is focused on the $108,100 position; if it cannot hold, it may continue to test support around $106,655, $105,020, or even $103,120. Only if it re-establishes above $108,100 (on the hourly chart) could a rebound be initiated, with resistance levels at $109,440, $110,660, and $111,800.

3️⃣ Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis

The current price of Ethereum is $4,377.54, down 1.00% in the past 24 hours, with a decline of 7.18% over the past week. Its market capitalization is $530.27 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $26.73 billion.

Technical Analysis: Ethereum's technical outlook is under pressure, forming a downward channel on the 4-hour chart, displaying a "downward oscillation triple" pattern. Today's key level is at $4,415; if it cannot hold, it may continue to test support around $4,358, $4,310, and $4,256. Only if it re-establishes above $4,415 could a rebound be initiated, with resistance levels at $4,455, $4,498, and $4,535.

4️⃣ Market Influencing Factors

1. Macroeconomic Environment and Risk Aversion: Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs are experiencing capital outflows, indicating increased macro uncertainty and rising market risk aversion.

2. Leverage Liquidation Pressure: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $207 million, with long positions liquidated at $165 million and short positions at $41.926 million. Ethereum faces a liquidation threshold of over $1 billion (close to $4,400), indicating significant liquidation pressure.

3. Historical Seasonal Factors: September has historically been considered a bearish month for cryptocurrencies, known as "Red September," with Bitcoin typically performing poorly during this month.

4. New Projects Diverting Funds: New projects like WLFI have attracted significant market attention and liquidity, potentially causing a diversion of funds from mainstream coins.

5️⃣ Future Outlook and Operational Suggestions

Bitcoin Outlook: Some analysts believe this decline may be a "small bear market adjustment" rather than a full-blown bear market like in 2021, as the fundamentals of Bitcoin as a global store of value and digital gold have not fundamentally changed, and its scarcity and recognition remain intact. In the long term, if Bitcoin does not fall below the annual line, the bull market may still be ongoing.

Ethereum Outlook: If Ethereum's price can drop to around $4,000, it will enter the first dollar-cost averaging zone. In the long term, the Ethereum ecosystem and demand continue to grow, and short-term declines may present opportunities for incremental buying.

Here is a summary of key price levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum:

Asset Support Levels Resistance Levels Current Price 24-Hour Change

Bitcoin (BTC) 106,655 / 105,020 / 103,120 108,100 / 109,440 / 110,660 107,504 -1.10%

Ethereum (ETH) 4,358 / 4,310 / 4,256 4,415 / 4,455 / 4,498 4,377.54 -1.00%

Operational Suggestions:

· Short-term Investors: With increased market volatility, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips and selling on highs," and to set stop-loss orders to avoid blindly chasing prices.

· Long-term Investors: Consider gradually building positions near key support levels. For Ethereum, you can buy 20% in the $4,200–$4,400 range, add 30% near $4,000, and keep the remaining funds flexible.

· Risk Control: Plan your funds reasonably, avoid using excessive leverage, and closely monitor changes in market sentiment and the performance of important technical levels.

6️⃣ Summary

Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing certain adjustment pressures at the beginning of September, influenced by seasonal factors, market risk aversion, and leverage liquidations. However, in the long term, the fundamentals of both as leaders in the cryptocurrency market have not fundamentally changed.

For investors, the current market volatility presents both risks and opportunities. Cautious operation, reasonable asset allocation, and setting stop-loss orders are key to navigating the current market. Please remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment decisions should be based on your own risk tolerance.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks of digital currency investment are significant; please make decisions cautiously based on a full understanding of the risks and your own situation.

There are many types of investments, and choosing the right one for yourself is important. There are many paths, and choosing the right guide is crucial. I am Gu Yue, interpreting world economic news, analyzing global investment trends, providing daily market analysis, and offering you the latest trading strategy ideas and professional investment consulting services to help you reach the peak of financial management.

This article represents personal views only and is for reference, not to be used as a basis for actual operations. Market conditions are unpredictable, and profits and losses are at your own risk. For the latest trading strategies, please follow the public account: Gu Yue KOL

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