Shen Yu @bitfish1 This passage resonates with me deeply—

Everyone in the market is pursuing the "optimal solution," trying to perfectly time the bottom, perfectly escape the top, maximize capital utilization, and design a plethora of seemingly flawless strategies. But the more they do this, the more dangerous it becomes.

From personal experience:

Once I pushed the table and calculated the returns, I thought it was simply perfect, and I immediately jumped in, even leveraging my position.

After a few successful runs, I felt an inner thrill, thinking, "Wow, how is this so stable? Have I discovered some market loophole? Am I a trading genius?"

The scary part is that once you develop this kind of path dependency and feeling, you become increasingly confident, more willing to gamble, and increasingly forget the road you came from—this is the beginning of disaster!

The optimal solution often means a high dependence on the environment running perfectly, with no black swans, no flash crashes, and no sudden policy shifts.

But the market is never the average in an Excel spreadsheet; a tiny reversal is enough to collapse your seemingly perfect system.

The previous smooth sailing was actually the market slowly "fattening" me up, making me confident and numb, and then waiting for the moment to cut me off.

We always summarize a set of winning rules based on limited past data and believe in them wholeheartedly.

Yet we forget that the market is full of uncertainties; true risk always comes from dimensions outside our cognitive models.

The optimal solution looks beautiful but is extremely fragile;

True wisdom lies in accepting suboptimal solutions, leaving some redundancy, and maintaining a safety margin, so at least you can sometimes escape when a reversal occurs.

So now I believe even more that resilience is the primary strategy:

In investing, simply surviving for the long term is the greatest advantage!

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