Master Discusses Hot Topics:
Today is Monday, and the U.S. stock market is closed in the evening, with CME also on holiday. The ETF activities are paused as well, so liquidity will be relatively low. This week’s labor data starts with job vacancies on Wednesday, followed by the ADP non-farm payrolls on Thursday, and the big non-farm payrolls along with the unemployment rate on Friday. These are the core messages for the market.
Starting from this Wednesday, the overall market sentiment will tighten, and no one dares to open large positions before the data is released on Friday. The key in September is still the interest rate meeting; is a rate cut a done deal?
Don’t get your hopes up too high; the probability is not 100%. Over on the Trump side, they are desperately trying to get people into the Federal Reserve, while the centrists are still hesitating about whether to cut interest rates, which depends on their mood.
Back to the market, the weekly and monthly charts of Bitcoin look really ugly, with a MACD death cross and a top divergence. Are we going to continue to kneel? Looking back over the past five years, the weekly top divergence in Bitcoin has appeared four times, and the only time it directly broke through the previous low was in 2022, which led to a bear market.
However, during the bull market, the two instances of top divergence did not lead to new lows; after a correction, they continued to rise. So the current line of life and death is 98,225. If it breaks below, it indicates that the market wants to turn bearish. If it holds, the shorts will be squeezed and become fuel for the continuation of the bull market.
I recall being fooled by the top divergence in 2023; I didn’t see the low point breaking and foolishly shorted, ultimately becoming the chips for the main force. I won’t make the same mistake this time.
In fact, thinking the other way around, the more people’s mentality explodes, the closer the market might be to the end. Even if the weekly and monthly charts look ugly, it doesn’t mean we will immediately see a big bearish candle. It’s possible that if we dig down another 3,000 points, the market could have a decent rebound, and a trend similar to last year from March to September would also be reasonable.
This round of Bitcoin looks weak precisely because the rebound has been so weak. Aside from the single bullish candle supported by Powell’s speech, other rebounds have almost all been stuck within 2,000 points.
Last year, when it broke below 50K and 80K, every drop was met with a 5,000-point level rebound, but now there’s nothing. To put it bluntly, regardless of whether it will drop again, we should at least wait for a medium bullish candle of around 5% before making any statements.
September has always been Bitcoin's poison, with an average return rate of 3.7%. The U.S. stock market also suffers, making it the worst month of the year. Historical experience tells us: first up, then down; a decent rebound in the first half of the month, followed by a heavy drop in the second half. The reason is simple: Bitcoin has been pressed into a dense area of chips, needing short-term consolidation, but ultimately it still has to wash down.
On the Ethereum side, the situation is different; its daily low has not been broken, and during rebounds, it is clearly stronger than Bitcoin, even having a chance to test previous highs. But the problem is, with Bitcoin looking so bad, the FOMO sentiment for Ethereum has already cooled down.
Without that fervor, once Bitcoin breaks down, Ethereum is likely to follow suit. Don’t dream of it having a separate market; there isn’t a single large-cap coin in the entire crypto circle that can thrive independently of Bitcoin.
However, I still have expectations for Ethereum; the weekly cycle wave has only completed the first wave of the third wave, and the real gains are in the third wave of the third wave. It all depends on whether you have the patience to hold until then or get washed out in this messy consolidation.
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 110,200
First Resistance Level: 108,800
Support Level Reference:
Second Support Level: 106,800
First Support Level: 105,000
If there’s another collapse in the short term, 105K is the must-watch target below. Although a descending wedge has formed, it hasn’t truly broken through and confirmed yet. So don’t fantasize about a reversal; the downtrend is still in place.
To confirm a bullish turn, the daily chart must break through this descending trend line. Keep a close eye on the daily support and resistance levels; for short-term operations, focus on the smaller K-line levels to see if there are signs of a trend reversal. In the past two weeks, the price has returned to the range of the box, and the previous highs and lows must be closely monitored, as these are key anchor points provided by the market.
The first resistance at 108.8K is the high point before yesterday’s close; it must be forcefully broken and held to break the descending trend line, which would indicate some short-term bullishness. But remember, any breakout without volume is a false breakout. The second resistance at 110.2K would only be considered a decent rebound if it can actually reach this level, allowing for a reassessment of the trend.
The first support at 106.8K is a key support level, where previous highs and lows have been defended. If it breaks, we’ll directly look at 105K. The second support at 105K is a critical level; if it breaks, the downward space will be completely opened up, and a waterfall drop cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin is currently extremely weak, and the rebound feels like squeezing toothpaste; don’t blindly go long. If you really want to go long, do it quickly in and out. A better approach is to wait for it to rebound to the previous low or trend line position, observe the volume situation, and if there’s no volume, just short it.
At a glance, the chart shows no recovery strength; it’s definitely not a bottom. In the short term, only look for oversold opportunities at lower levels to profit from the rebound difference; don’t hold long.
9.1 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Light long at 106,800, Target: 108,800
Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 108,800-109,400 range, Target: 106,800-105,000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making rash conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they “always catch the tops and bottoms,” but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat: Coin Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about K-lines, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!
Friendly Reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official account (as shown above); any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author! Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false, and thank you for reading.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
