This article is only a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any trading based on this is at your own risk.
On August 26, when BTC fell below 112,000, I expressed my views in the article. During the decline, 109,000 and 107,500 would be two support levels. The subsequent price movement also aligned with the views expressed in the article; after the first spike down below 109,000, it rebounded to over 113,000, with the rebound slightly exceeding expectations. After another drop on August 30, it began to rebound slightly around 107,200.
From the current trend, today will continue to test the support near 107,500. The chart below is a 4-hour level chart, and the current price has temporarily found support at the platform level from early July, with the price experiencing slight horizontal fluctuations in the range of 107,000 to 109,500. There is a clear downward trend line on the 4-hour level, and based on trading behavior, one should not actively choose to go long before breaking the trend line. The pullback since August 14 has not been accompanied by any significant economic or geopolitical bearish news, so after breaking the downward trend line, it is likely that there will not be a V-shaped reversal. The market will likely transition into a period of consolidation and repair after breaking the downward trend line, and only after the sentiment eases will it choose a direction again. Therefore, for those looking to buy or go long, I personally believe there is no need to rush; just wait a bit longer. First, wait for the break of the downward trend line, and then wait for the confirmation of the consolidation range after the breakout. Before that, being bearish on BTC is the only solution, as the daily to weekly levels are all in a MACD death cross state, and being bullish on the left side can lead to frequent stop losses.
As for ETH, no matter how strong it is, it cannot withstand BTC dragging the entire crypto market down. Once BTC's downward trend ends and transitions into a consolidation phase, ETH may once again exhibit independent market behavior. In terms of price, pay attention to trading opportunities near the previous pullback low of around 4,070; the closer to this price, the higher the cost-effectiveness of buying (small stop loss, large take profit).
Follow me to maximize trend profits with minimal operations.
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