Yesterday's homework wasn't too difficult to write, but today it has become challenging. I originally hoped that the core PCE data to be released on Friday would alleviate some market anxiety, but the market couldn't hold on before the PCE was announced, dropping below $110,000. After the core PCE data was released, although prices briefly rebounded, they were still suppressed by pessimistic expectations. This time, the market did not view inflation being within expectations as a good thing.

Instead, it believes that inflation is currently rising, and that the data after the tariffs officially take effect next month will show further inflation increases, raising the possibility of stagflation. Even the expectations for a rate cut in September are slightly increasing while the market continues to decline, indicating that there are concerns about potential economic issues.

Of course, U.S. stocks have also fallen sharply. Before the market opened today, U.S. stock futures were already down, dragging $BTC into a downward channel as well. This is mainly because investor sentiment has become somewhat difficult to control, and the problem this brings is how the market will behave over the weekend when liquidity is lower. Will it continue to slowly decline like last week, stabilize, or accelerate the decline?

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, panic has indeed occurred. Today's turnover rate saw a significant increase, with the usual turnover around 120,000 coins, but today it surged to 235,000 coins. The increase in turnover is likely due to a large amount of selling triggered by the price drop. However, today there was a sudden outflow of over 50,000 Bitcoins, with more than 40,000 coming from Kraken.

The price of BTC has entered the support range of $102,000 to $108,000, which has a very high stability. As long as the support is not broken, the likelihood of a drop is quite low. Even if it does break, it should quickly rebound.

The headache over the weekend is that in a low liquidity situation, investor sentiment will dominate.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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