I forgot about the time difference issue, and by the time I realized it, it was already past. The core PCE data was within expectations, and personal income data was also good, but the market's reaction was not favorable. I don't know if it's due to concerns about inflation rebounding. However, this level of inflation is actually acceptable for the Federal Reserve, especially with tariffs; inflation may continue to rise starting next month.

The decline in U.S. stocks should be due to concerns about the economy. After the core PCE data was released, the probability of a rate cut in September on the CME rose to nearly 90%. The rise in inflation leading to an increase in the market's expectation of rate cuts likely reflects worries about the economy entering stagflation or recession.

Having passed the inflation hurdle, next week we have the non-farm payroll data. The non-farm payroll data next Friday may be even more important. A decline in employment and an increase in unemployment, while increasing the probability of a rate cut, would also heighten investors' panic about an economic downturn. However, if labor data improves and the unemployment rate decreases, it could alleviate economic concerns but would not be favorable for rate cuts.

The market is indeed so conflicted, so the best outcome would be a warming of the data, with Trump gaining more delegate support, forcing a rate cut under favorable data conditions.

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