Random thoughts on the state of crypto: #4
- Hope for a slow grind up in prices. If we suddenly pump to euphoria in Q4, it likely peaks as natives sell into surges. Slow grind = natives sell to institutions, then buy back later.
- TradFi DAT cycle: BTC DAT -> ETH DAT -> Alt DATs (We're here) -> Onchain DATs. Keep an eye on @eth_strategy and its $STRAT token for the rotation (if happens).
- The onchain DAT meta could revive dying crypto alts like it revived dying tradfi stocks. And it would be a clear market top.
- High funding rates once signaled overheated longs, but maybe Ethena broke that? Better to track USDe supply, which doubled in a month.
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- Private L1s (Google, Stripe…) look bearish for $ETH but still expand the industry. $ETH can pump despite falling dominance, and $SOL could pump even more.
- There won’t be a cycle top without Runes and Ordinals pumping. Not a thought, just a plea to save my bags.
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- $CFG can 10x as the OG of RWAs with $1.2B TVL. Trades ~40x below $ONDO. Horizon by Aave now uses two $CFG products, plus S&P partnerships.
- $INV is the next $FLUID: adoption metrics up, 10x potential, but patience is key.
- Coinbase/Binance say they 'support builders' but list endless memecoins, while $FLUID with real adoption is on neither.
- Time to watch DeSci again: $AUBRAI did 100x on $BIO. Success tends to snowball.
- Use crypto debit cards building payment networks: spend-to-earn can be a hot narrative. These airdrops are juicy as gaming them is harder.
- Full circle: ICOs → liquidity mining → fair launches → points → memecoins → back to ICOs. Airdrop farmers are dropping the 'free money' mindset (it wasn't free anyway), and capital is flowing back into ICOs. Still early, and more sustainable.
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- Polymarket needs a revamp: UI + trading experience. Still getting errors on 'market buy.' Annoying AF.
- Hyperliquid’s spot market growth isn’t priced in. Only uncertainty is $HYPE team unlocks.
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