🚨 A few questions about "Trump firing Federal Reserve Governor Cook," let me briefly share my understanding —

1⃣ Is this the first time in the Federal Reserve's over 100-year history that a "Governor has been fired by the President"?

Yes. In the past, even strong presidents like Nixon and Johnson only applied pressure or intervened, but never actually took action.

So this time is a signal: the independence of the Federal Reserve is no longer a hard rule, but rather a gap that can be torn open by politics.

I interpret this as: the institutional foundation has been rewritten, shifting from a technical agency to a political tool, from data trading to power trading.

2⃣ Does the President have this power?

Legally, it does state "for cause," but this concept is too vague; anyway, if I were a previous president, I wouldn't dare to act recklessly.

The reason is simple: if action is taken, the market's trust in the Federal Reserve would be shaken.

Trump is the first to put this vague clause into practice; the key point is not whether it can be done, but that someone actually dares to do it.

So what the market should reprice is not Cook's departure, but that every future president may treat the Federal Reserve as a manipulable card.

3⃣ Are the reasons for firing Cook valid?

The surface reason is loan document fraud, but this seems more like setting a target first and then finding a reason.

Trump wants to create a scene in the Federal Reserve Board to set an example, and he chose Cook because she was the easiest target.

This indicates that Trump has systematic considerations: to establish a controllable majority on the board.

The biggest consequence of this event is that all governors realize that independence is fragile, and in the future, it may not be possible to make decisions solely based on economic logic.

4⃣ How much influence does Trump have on the board now?

Let's calculate: Bowman and Waller are considered his people, Miran is still awaiting confirmation, and if Cook's position is filled, it could very well be 4/7.

This is a critical ratio. The board is not a voting machine, but as political colors deepen, the atmosphere of discussions will be significantly altered.

Looking further ahead, Powell's term ends in 2026, and by then, Trump could completely reshape the chair selection.

The Federal Reserve may undergo significant structural changes in the next two years.

5⃣ Has the market's pricing logic changed?

Short-term interest rates are falling, betting on quicker rate cuts;

Long-term interest rates are rising, increasing risk premiums;

U.S. stocks are under pressure due to uncertain policy paths;

Gold benefits as an asset to hedge against independence risks.

The real core of all market transactions is: the Federal Reserve has lost its institutional immunity for the first time.

This means that the market's pricing logic needs to be upgraded:

Economic data + political intervention → new monetary policy function, which is the biggest structural shock for the next few years.

So now the question arises, why is #Bitcoin falling?

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