Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On August 26, the market ultimately failed to hold the $110,000 mark. After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell adopted a dovish stance, BTC briefly rose to $117,000, but soon experienced four consecutive daily declines, even dipping to $108,666.66 this morning. After reaching an all-time high, Ethereum quickly fell to $4,334, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 6%. Altcoins also faced significant corrections due to the overall market impact.
Coinglass data shows that the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours reached $935 million, with long positions liquidating at $821 million, further devastating bulls. On August 24, glassnode data indicated that over $150 million in long positions were rapidly liquidated, marking one of the largest liquidation events for BTC bulls since December 2024.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated in a post on August 24, "We are at the end of the bull market cycle that began in January 2023—I expect this phase will not last more than a few months, as every marginal buyer globally has turned to and purchased cryptocurrencies, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum now reaching all-time highs. The high target I set for the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate at 0.04 has also been achieved, which for me means that ETH trading has effectively ended. The strategy focus has shifted from capital accumulation to capital preservation."
Discussions about the market's bull and bear status have surged. Has the bull market really ended? This question weighs heavily on countless retail investors.
Trump Dismisses Federal Reserve Governor Cook
On August 26, U.S. President Trump signed a document dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Cook, effective immediately. This sudden move disrupted market investors' judgments and expectations.
In the document, Trump stated: "By the powers vested in me by Article II of the U.S. Constitution and the amended Federal Reserve Act of 1913, I hereby remove Cook from his position on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Given Cook's dishonest behavior in financial matters, which may involve criminal conduct, I cannot have confidence in your integrity. At the very least, these actions expose serious negligence in your financial dealings, raising doubts about your ability and credibility as a financial regulator."
"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos quoted his previous tweet, stating that Trump's dismissal of Cook is blatantly obvious, representing an open act of extortion and an attempt to pressure policymakers to force a rate cut.
The Federal Reserve declined to comment on Trump's dismissal of Governor Cook. However, Governor Cook stated that President Trump has no authority to fire him and that he will continue to fulfill his duties.
Financial markets dislike uncertainty, and Trump's attack on the Federal Reserve undoubtedly casts a shadow over subsequent market sentiment.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Experiences Six Consecutive Days of Net Outflows
As one of the important indicators for market monitoring, Bitcoin spot ETF data showed net outflows for six consecutive days from August 15 to August 22. sosovalue data indicated that on August 19, the single-day net outflow reached $523.31 million, and on August 20, the net outflow was $311.57 million.
Additionally, on August 1, the single-day net outflow peaked at $812.25 million, and on August 4, the single-day net outflow was $333.19 million. The inflow of ETF spot funds is not optimistic.
Futures Speculative Positions Surge, Whales Take Profits
Last Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell adopted a dovish stance, the open interest in altcoin futures surged by $9.2 billion in a single day, pushing the total open interest to a new historical high of $61.7 billion.
Such rapid capital inflow highlights that altcoins are increasingly becoming a key factor driving the rise in leverage levels, increased volatility, and heightened fragility in the digital asset market.
When market participants unanimously believe in a bullish outlook and sentiment is high, price movements often go against expectations, leading to a deleveraging phase.
Another key chart shows that market-sensitive and savvy whales have begun to take profits.
glassnode data indicates that all Bitcoin holding groups have clearly entered a selling and cashing out phase, with the group holding 10 to 100 Bitcoins leading the way. The consistency of behavior across groups highlights that widespread selling pressure is emerging in the market.
Market Views
Altcoin Vector analysis indicates an unusual situation for BTC and ETH:
In this three-year cycle, a rare scenario has emerged for the first time: ETH is showing strong momentum.
🔹 Ethereum is performing strongly → Positive sentiment (attracting capital inflow)
🔹 Bitcoin's performance → Neutral (fluctuating within a range)
🔻 In a risk-averse sentiment: Large Bitcoin wallets are taking profits and reallocating to Ethereum.
For Ethereum to lead the market, Bitcoin must hold key positions—capital rotation is pushing Ethereum towards a leading position in the cycle.
Placeholder partner tweeted, "In my view, this feels like the last major test before the final phase of this cycle arrives."
glassnode tweeted that $110,800 is the average holding cost for investors who entered and held positions for 1 to 3 months during the rise to all-time highs from May to July. Historically, if Bitcoin cannot hold this price level, the market often falls into a prolonged period of weakness lasting several months, potentially leading to a more significant correction.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, hinted in the tweet comments that BTC still has another wave of upward movement, "We have always emphasized that it will not fully mirror the movements, but the overall context needs to be accurate… There have been significant reverse price discrepancies in the past, and they were ultimately corrected by BTC prices catching up to the growth rate of the M2 money supply."
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, stated that the best buying points were during the pullback from $4,800 to $4,100 and $4,300, and that the bull market trend has not changed.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine's board, retweeted market views from his fund analyst Mark Newton, predicting that ETH will bottom out in the next few hours. Analyst Mark stated, "Ideally, ETH should bottom out around $4,300 at some point in the next 12 hours, then start to rise to new highs, breaking through $5,100 and reaching close to $5,400 - $5,450."
Data analysis firm Santiment tweeted that since the peak of tariff concerns in early April, Bitcoin's ETF has been experiencing its longest consecutive outflow period (6 trading days). Increasingly, it appears that these inflows and outflows are driven by retail investors, rather than just institutions as in earlier times. When retail traders believe the market has peaked, many of them may make emotional decisions to withdraw funds from the ETF. This could temporarily lead to a market decline but often signals that the market will eventually bottom out (as we saw in April).
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