This article is only a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any trading based on this is at your own risk.

In the past two weeks, the market has been tense, with intense long and short battles and significant short-term volatility.

On the evening of August 22, as the BTC price approached 112,000 again, the market surged significantly in a short time due to comments from Powell, with BTC rising by 5%, moving out of the danger zone, and ETH soaring by 15% in one night, reaching a new high.

Yesterday, after BTC fell below 112,000 during the day, it attempted to rebound in the evening, ultimately stopping at 112,900. It then fell again, and at the end of the daily line, it closed below 112,000 for the first time in nearly a month and a half, confirming a break below this key level.

Personally, whether in terms of opinion or trading strategy, I still maintain the views from the last article. Below 112,000, do not hold too many fantasies; honestly wait for the signal that the correction has ended. In trading, strictly set stop losses; short sellers should place their stop loss at 112,900 to ensure they are not washed out by small fluctuations.

From a graphical perspective, BTC has been in a clear rectangular range for the past month and a half. Therefore, the target position for this round of BTC correction should be between 100,000 and 102,000, which is also near the lower edge of the range constructed in May and June. However, before reaching the target position, there are still two key support levels that may cause the correction to end early. One is near the 120-day moving average—109,000, which is also where BTC is currently consolidating its price; the other is 107,500, which is a small platform formed in early July and has support. Additionally, 109,000 and 107,500 are also accumulation points for chips, so these two levels need special attention. Once broken, BTC will likely glide smoothly towards the target with little pause in between.

Compared to BTC, ETH's performance is much stronger, with greater elasticity and a more vigorous rebound. In the last article, it was mentioned that ETH might look for support between 3,940 and 4,090; in reality, ETH only fell back to 4,100 before continuing to rise.

Currently, ETH is falling back along with BTC, near the price of 4,400, making it difficult to identify trading opportunities. Personally, I do not have many directional views. For now, I see it as a range-bound fluctuation, with a range between 4,060 and 4,800. I will look for trading opportunities near the boundaries of this fluctuation area.

From the daily technical indicators of ETH, there have been three instances of a top divergence, which is clearly not a good sign. Many people believe that top divergences in trending markets should be ignored because such divergences can persist for a long time.

However, from my perspective, a top divergence during an uptrend is equivalent to a price deviation from value. It can continue and deepen, but the price will eventually return to value, even falling below it, and the technical pattern of the top divergence will eventually disappear or even develop into a bottom divergence. A top divergence is like the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"; you may ignore it once or twice, but when the wolf truly arrives, it will be too late to regret.

Looking at the chart, if ETH subsequently falls below the 4,060 level, caution should be exercised. Until then, it can still be held.

Finally, let's take a look at the stock price trend of MicroStrategy. It was previously mentioned that MicroStrategy serves as a leading indicator for BTC. On August 19, MicroStrategy's stock price fell below a long-term support line, and the rebound on the 22nd did not return to the range, effectively confirming the rebound after the break. Based on MicroStrategy's technical indicators, the long-term outlook is bearish, so being cautious at this time is not a mistake.

I personally believe that the best trend moving forward would be for BTC to continue to maintain weakness, with slight and slow downward fluctuations, while funds continue to shift towards ETH and gradually spill over into some smaller coins, ultimately pulling everything up.

Follow me to maximize trend profits with minimal operations.

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