Debt expansion, seasonal factors, and on-chain structural changes are collectively influencing the market, leading to a clear divergence in some key indicators: some data reflects a tendency for profit-taking in the market, while other indicators show that the core driving forces of the bull market are still present. The gap between short-term enthusiasm and long-term confidence is rapidly narrowing, and the coming weeks may become a critical juncture for determining the trend.

1

BTC may continue to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. Recent attempts at breaking through have lacked the confidence and subsequent momentum seen in previous sustained rallies. The overall timing appears somewhat awkward, and key indicators that have consistently supported strong upward movements have not appeared in sync. Assessing downside risk signals and determining whether to shift to a more defensive position can effectively hedge against risks.

2

Macroeconomic inflation data is not optimistic. Following a moderate CPI, the significantly rising July PPI (Producer Price Index) has taken the spotlight. The PPI data increased by 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding expectations by 0.2%. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Basent continues his dovish rhetoric, claiming that according to their economic "model," the neutral interest rate should be 150 basis points lower. Although the official stance remains optimistic, the market is not convinced, with a general belief that tariff costs may quickly impact ordinary consumers.

3

The Jackson Hole meeting is currently a focal point of market attention, scheduled to take place from August 21 to 23, U.S. time. The focus of this meeting will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at 10 a.m. U.S. time on Friday (around 10 p.m. Hong Kong time). This is likely to be his last appearance at the meeting as Fed Chairman, and his tone regarding the economic and interest rate outlook, especially whether any signals about a rate cut in September will be released, will be crucial for assessing the policy tone for the remainder of the year.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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