This is Shelter inflation (YoY) from the CPI basket.

Why is it important?

Because Shelter is the largest component of the CPI basket, comprising roughly 33% of the headline measurement and 41% of the core measurement.

The concern here is simple: despite the largest component still showing significant disinflation (YoY Shelter inflation is decelerating), the measurements for headline, core, median, and trimmed-mean CPI are all rising.

This means, based simply on math, that all other inflation metrics (on the aggregate) are experiencing an accelerated pace of inflation on a YoY basis.

That is antithetical to the Fed cutting rates, at least for now, particularly while their focus remains steadfast on fighting inflation.

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