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The market has been really messed up these past few days, with a direct drop in the Asian time zone for two consecutive mornings. It started on Monday at 7 AM, and continued at 9 AM yesterday, catching people off guard. Meanwhile, the US stock market closed with a slight increase, and the futures market showed no significant fluctuations, making it hard to gauge the situation.

As a result, Bitcoin took a nosedive, and I was still holding onto my longs, not wanting to drag it out until Friday's Jackson Hole meeting. Who knew this damn trend would keep throwing curveballs every day? There’s no macro data to speak of, yet it’s leaking downwards, which is just plain annoying, right?

However, so far, I really don’t think the market is at a stage of complete collapse; the US stock market is still stable. If the market was truly panicking about a rate cut in September, it should have already reflected in the US stocks and bonds, but I haven’t seen that at all.

The exchange's inventory hasn’t shown any major fluctuations in the past 24 hours; instead, it’s been steadily declining, indicating that funds haven’t fled, and the overall trend hasn’t changed. This morning, I took a closer look, and the drop started right at 9:30 PM last night, coinciding with the opening of the tech stocks.

In just one hour, there was a significant volume drop, and the tech stocks, including the Nasdaq and S&P, also turned red. This indicates that this drop is completely different from the previous isolated Bitcoin crashes.

This time, both cryptocurrencies and stocks are crashing, gold is down, and US bond yields are falling. This isn’t just about rate cut expectations; it’s likely mixed with concerns about an economic recession.

Back to the market, the support level for Bitcoin is now at 112K. It could break down to 111.8K or even 111.5K, but this area is where the bulls are holding strong. As long as the bears don’t have enough strength to break through, this is the rebound point, and it could easily pull back to 115K to 117K.

So, for those who dare to short here in the short term, it’s purely a case of being out of their minds. If it doesn’t really break down, just wait for a sudden surge later tonight; the market has a consistent pattern like that.

On a larger scale, I have to say the ugly truth upfront: as long as this week’s closing is above 107.5K, the MACD weekly death cross can still hold. But if it drops too low, the death cross next week will be a certainty.

Unless it can bounce back to 119.5K, we will definitely see a second top divergence on the weekly chart within two weeks. Such a level of divergence historically often leads to a deep correction, or even a technical bear market.

However, the most annoying part of the market is that after a death cross, the first week might actually give you a forced rebound that messes with your mindset. So when this script really plays out, I won’t hesitate to reduce my positions. I’m currently sitting on the long side, but betrayal is part of the game. After so many years, it’s normal to join if you can’t beat it.

Let’s explore the bottom expectations. Since July, there has been a continuous rise, and the lowest drop has been to 112K. Last time, it was the non-farm payroll data that made investors worry about a recession, and now the plot is almost a copy-paste. Since the reasons are similar, the 112K level before Jackson Hole still has some resilience; at least it won’t be easily broken.

Not only Bitcoin is under pressure, but Ethereum is also suffering. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale are all reducing their holdings. Although the volume isn’t large, the sentiment conveyed is very clear; everyone isn’t too optimistic.

Ethereum still has an unfilled gap, but whether it fills it or not isn’t the key; the key lies in the expectations for September. This Friday’s Jackson Hole will definitely be under the magnifying glass.

This morning, Ethereum has already retraced to 4060, which is the previous breakout point for the push to 5K. It’s normal to pause here; there’s only a thin layer separating it from the 4K mark. If you try to short during the day, that’s just asking for trouble.

If there’s news stimulation tonight, it could shoot back to 4300 before you even have time to react. Be rational, wait for a rebound, and don’t rush. You can either stay out and wait for it to go up before entering or try a small long position. The only dead end is to short below 4060; if you do that, you’ll be harvested in no time.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 115300

First Resistance Level: 114300

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 112700

First Support Level: 11200

The 112.8~113K range is currently a double bottom formation. The key now is to see if it can hold above 113K; if it gets smashed through again, we need to be cautious about reopening the downward space. 112K is the extreme support before the last rebound; once it breaks, the decline will accelerate.

Since this is a rebound after a sharp drop, we need to keep an eye on whether the lows are being raised. If the lows can be raised, combined with sideways movement, there’s a chance to break the short-term downward trend and continue moving upwards.

However, this rebound is too weak compared to the previous drop, so don’t think about going all in on shorts during the rebound; instead, look for opportunities to go long in the short term.

The first pressure level at 114.3K is the starting point of the previous accelerated decline. If it can be reclaimed, it means there’s hope for the bottom to move upwards. The focus now is on whether there’s enough volume to break through it.

The second pressure level at 115.3K can only be reached if the first pressure level is broken and stabilized; this is the next key point. However, the market can easily encounter resistance again here, so for now, let’s focus on the price surpassing 114.3K first.

The first support level at 112.7K is the most critical point today; if it can’t hold, be prepared for a downward move. The rebound logic will collapse directly. The second support level at 112K is the previous extreme low; if 112.7K can’t hold, we’ll have to keep an eye on this level. If even 112K breaks, the chart will be completely invalidated.

Yesterday, there was already a significant drop, so now the best approach is to look for technical rebound opportunities in the support zone and go long. Don’t think about forcing a short here; the cost-effectiveness isn’t high.

Going long doesn’t mean looking for a big trend; it’s about finding rebound points along the downward trend. Personally, I lean towards the bearish side, but shorting at this price level isn’t cost-effective; the risk-reward ratio is terrible. Long positions should be tactical, just for a super short play.

8.20 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in the 111800-112000 range, Target: 114300-115300

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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