Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Article writing time: August 18, 14:07 Beijing time
Market Information
- CITIC Securities: The market is waiting for Powell's speech to guide interest rate cut expectations;
- The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is 84.6%;
- Tom Lee: Bitcoin reserves will help the U.S. lead in digital transformation;
- The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and Powell's speech will be released next week;
- S&P Dow Jones Indices plans to launch tokenized index products;
Market Review
Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced slight fluctuations and rebounds, with a rebound high at 118,558, followed by a decline, with the current low at 114,923. Ethereum had a slight rebound high at 4,574, with the current low at 4,257. The market is currently operating near the short-term low.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin
Last Saturday, we reminded everyone that Bitcoin's weekly chart would close with a bearish candle, and the daily chart also showed two consecutive bearish candles, indicating a short-term correction. Our entry point was around 118,200, and the market provided an entry opportunity as expected over the weekend, followed by a decline that has already broken our predicted low near 115,000, capturing over 3,000 points. Currently, the weekly chart has closed with a bearish candle at the high, indicating a need for short-term correction. The daily chart has not yet shown a lower shadow candle, and the support for this short-term correction is around 114,600, which has not yet been reached. We should pay attention to whether a lower shadow candle can be formed upon reaching this level. If not, the support at 111,850 will not hold. In trading, one can consider going long near the support based on the 4-hour closing situation, with a recommended entry point around 114,600, a stop loss at 113,000, and a target of 120,000. If the support holds, the market will oscillate again, and traders should seize entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently.
Ethereum
Ethereum's movement is somewhat different from Bitcoin's. Ethereum had a stronger rebound over the weekend, followed by a smaller decline. Our stop loss for the layout made on Saturday was 4,530, which was hit, resulting in a loss of 75 points. The profit and loss from Bitcoin offset each other, leaving an overall profit. Currently, Ethereum appears to be stronger on the daily chart, with the previous rebound's correction being minor, and this correction is similar. As long as the support below is not broken, there is a significant chance for Ethereum to continue reaching new highs. Pay attention to the support around 4,100 and consider going long around this level. It is better to wait for a correction to go long rather than to short. The recommended entry point is around 4,100, with a stop loss at 4,000 and a target in the 4,500-4,600 range. Traders should seize entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently.
In summary:
Short-term corrections have reached near support, and consider going long around the support level.
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, and the above is only personal advice for reference!
Follow the WeChat public account "Crypto Lao Zhao" to discuss the market together;
"In life, one should enjoy to the fullest, do not let the golden cup face the moon empty, cook sheep and slaughter cattle for joy, one must drink three hundred cups." Always retain Li Bai's boldness, "Cen Fuzi, Dan Qiu Sheng, let’s drink, do not stop the cups." Always have brothers with whom you can talk about anything. Cheers to life, cheers to the past, keep it up, every person in the crypto world.
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