The little buddy should be asking about the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference next Friday, where Powell will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. Theoretically, this could involve discussions about changes to U.S. interest rates in September or even further out, and everyone is waiting for that.

I heard a saying that if Powell makes dovish comments at Jackson Hole, the market might drop because it has already anticipated a rate cut in September. If Powell confirms the rate cut, then the market's bullish sentiment will dissipate, and investors will "sell the news."

On the other hand, if Powell chooses not to reveal his final stance or continues to maintain a hawkish tone, the market will also decline. This is because it is well-known that currently, Trump and Powell are in a 3:9 struggle for votes on the Federal Reserve's committee. Even with Williams included, it would be 4:8, and whether or not to cut rates still depends on the moderates.

So, is it a bad situation where the market will drop regardless? I don't see it that way. First of all, if Powell turns dovish, it means the market will speculate on the Fed entering a phase of continuous rate cuts, which is the 1% rate that Trump hopes for. Although the likelihood is low, it does align with Trump's and the market's expectations.

Therefore, even if there is a "sell the news" reaction, it won't change the market's potential for Trump to increase his gambit. If that happens, I will go long. However, if Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance, it will indeed be troublesome, and we will have to wait for the September meeting to see if there will be a rate cut and what the dot plot indicates.

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