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Last night's needle was just purely disgusting. The day before yesterday, the CPI was a good news, and the next day the PPI came in with a surprise. In the middle of the night, Chuanzi popped up again saying inflation is not a problem. Isn't this just blatant artificial manipulation and market washing?

September is still expected to cut interest rates, but now the market is panicking about the PPI, shaking the confidence that was originally certain about the rate cut. After Besent made his statement that day, the market thought the rate cut in September was a sure thing, with some even optimistic about a 50 basis point cut. Now with the PPI's unexpected rise, not to mention 50, even 25 has to be re-negotiated.

But I believe this data is fundamentally useless; the key is still the game between Chuanzi and the Federal Reserve. As long as Chuanzi's people have enough votes at the September meeting, even if the PPI rises by 1% or even 5%, he might still directly cut rates.

Of course, there are still some responsible people in the Federal Reserve. If it’s just a slight increase, according to Chuanzi's idea, cutting 25 is not a problem, but if inflation really skyrockets, then don’t expect a significant rate cut.

In fact, last night's drop wasn't a fatal bearish signal; there might still be a V-shaped rebound. However, the higher the price goes, the harder it is to meet expectations, so don’t rush in. Right now, I’m more optimistic about Ethereum (if you can't beat them, join them). This time, the momentum of institutional entry is different, and the underlying logic has changed.

So my plan is to wait for a false breakout—retest—true breakout. This is a historic opportunity; the market must repeatedly contest before breaking out. I wouldn’t mind playing this scenario a dozen or twenty times.

Back to the market, after Bitcoin broke a new high, it didn’t continue to rise but slowly fell back. The PPI's release caused a sharp drop, confirming the false breakout. At that time, it filled the URPD gap and retested the 112K support level. Following the script, if it forms a small-level bottom, it will also initiate a wave of upward movement.

Ethereum also showed strong market-making signals, but Bitcoin still went through a typical washout, with large funds specifically targeting liquidity concentration areas. In the short term, there might be a rebound for confirmation, but the short-term rebound won’t exceed 123K, so it’s still worth shorting a bit.

As for whether it’s a major top? I can’t draw a definitive conclusion, but tops expand from small levels to large levels. Last night, the CME Bitcoin filled the gap between 118.4K and 119.1K, and the remaining gap is around 90K. Speaking of filling gaps, it’s a bit of a mystery; you never know when it will happen, but there’s a 90% probability it will be filled.

If Ethereum breaks 4640 in the short term, I’m optimistic about a V-shaped rebound on the right side, targeting 4666, 4688, 4712, and 4770. The 8-hour MACD has a death cross, but it’s far from the zero line, so there’s room for change. Today, the 4-hour MACD is likely to signal a stop in the decline, so it won’t test the 8-hour low of 4412.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 120300

First Resistance Level: 129400

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 118400

First Support Level: 117200

Currently, if 118.4K holds, there might still be a short-term rebound. If it doesn’t break through 119.4K, don’t think about a one-sided upward movement for now; it could pull you down at any moment.

Right now, it’s a range oscillation between 118.4K and 119.4K, with the long-term moving average below being an important support area. It needs to hold for any chance. If 118K is lost, panic selling will occur, accelerating the downward movement.

The first resistance at 119.4K might retest, but this is a point where short-term pullbacks can easily occur. Don’t chase the breakout; wait for it to pull back before entering. The second resistance at 120.3K, after breaking 120K, don’t rush to go all in; first, see if 120K can stabilize before considering an upward move.

The first support at 118.4K is a short-term buying point if the first resistance is pushed back. The second support at 117.2K is the lower edge of the range and moving average support. If it closes below the previous low of 117.8K, be careful as it may directly lead to an N-shaped decline.

8.15 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 117200-117800 range. Target: 119400-120300

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now.

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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