😂 It's all my fault, I took the gossip too seriously and missed the big event. The main reason for the sudden spike of $BTC to $117,700 is the PPI data released at 8:30 PM Beijing time, which stands for the Producer Price Index. In simple terms, it reflects production costs + service costs.

The PPI data is also part of inflation, and the core PCE data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is calculated using core CPI data + core PPI data, so the PPI data is an important component of inflation data.

The previous value of this data was 2.4% (revised from 2.3%), and the expected data was 2.5%. A slight increase is normal, but the actual data released was 3.3%, which is a significant increase.

After the data was released, market expectations for a rate cut in September began to decline. Although the probability of a rate cut in September is still as high as 94.4%, the market sentiment has changed.

We discussed earlier that the data doesn't mean much to Trump; he wants to cut rates regardless of the data. However, even his supporters within the Federal Reserve cannot think this way. If the data is somewhat similar, these people can support him without issue, but if inflation data truly rises significantly, support for Trump will definitely be questioned.

After all, the Federal Reserve's serious job is to maintain economic stability in the U.S. and is not subject to political interference. If they were to misrepresent the situation, it would give the Democrats a great opportunity to impeach. This data can be considered one of the best weapons for the conservative faction led by Powell.

By the way, the PPI data was also released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was the agency whose director was replaced by Trump. The current director is not one of his appointees but a temporary director, and Trump's appointee has not yet been confirmed by the Senate.

However, there are still other data points before the September meeting, and there will be opportunities for further speculation. Therefore, I personally believe that this data can slightly reduce the probability of a rate cut in September, but it is not fatal. I don't know if Trump will question this data as being "manipulated."

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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