Good morning, crypto friends ☀️, I am Wang Yibo! A new day brings the ever-changing dynamics of the crypto world, which continues to captivate countless investors. Loyal fans, check in 👍, and those who like will make a fortune 🍗🍗🌹🌹! In this unpredictable market, only by closely following real-time updates can we seize the opportunity.
【Global Market Dynamics and Policy Expectations】
On Monday, U.S. stocks closed with an overall downward trend, with the Dow Jones initially down 0.45%, the S&P 500 down 0.25%, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%. Tech stocks showed mixed performance, with C3.ai (AI.N) down 25.6%, Intel (INTC.O) up 3.51%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) down 0.35%. As an important barometer of the global financial market, the movements of U.S. stocks have a certain correlation with the crypto market, and investors need to closely monitor their subsequent trends to timely adjust their cryptocurrency investment strategies.
The gold sector weakened, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy expectations have become the current market focus. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 14.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 85.9%; the probability of maintaining rates in October is 5.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 55.1%. Changes in interest rate policy have far-reaching effects on the entire financial market. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, it may lead to a significant influx of funds into risk assets, including the crypto market, providing positive support for cryptocurrency prices.
It is worth noting that the CPI data for August 12 is about to be released, and the market generally expects it to be bearish. CPI data is a key indicator of inflation levels, and if the data turns out to be bearish as expected, it may trigger a cautious overall market sentiment, potentially dragging down the crypto market. A sharp rise in the early session is often not a good sign; on the eve of such key data releases, the crypto market has already shown signs of retreat, and investors need to remain vigilant, paying attention to real-time dynamics to respond to potential market fluctuations.
In addition, in the past month, both China and the U.S. have made key progress in the legislative process regarding stablecoins. The "Stablecoin Regulation" published in the gazette by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government will officially take effect on August 1, 2025. The clarification and standardization of regulatory policies will have a profound impact on the stablecoin market and the entire cryptocurrency market, and investors need to continuously monitor the implementation details and subsequent developments of related policies.
【Bitcoin Market Analysis】
Bitcoin's performance yesterday was quite tumultuous. In the morning, it initially consolidated around the low of 118050, then surged to a high of 122278, but faced significant resistance at this level and retreated after the peak. In the evening, it rebounded from the low of 119348 to around 120755, but the good times didn't last long, as the price retreated again, dropping to a current low of 118035. After experiencing a round of volatility, the market is once again in a state of stalemate.
From a daily chart perspective, it shows an inverted hanging man candlestick pattern. The bulls quickly pushed up in the morning but lacked sufficient volume support, then faced bearish pressure, forming a "shooting star" and retreating. This pattern indicates strong selling pressure above. Although the overall trend remains bullish, the extent of the pullback during the process cannot be ignored.
Moving forward, Bitcoin's market is likely to continue fluctuating. When the market timing is ripe, panic among retail investors often occurs, and after a spike in the fear index, it may be the moment for whales to wash the market again. For now, it is recommended that investors continue to wait for a pullback opportunity and consider entering long positions at the right time. Key support around 118000 should be closely monitored; if the price stabilizes at this level and shows clear reversal signals, light positions can be considered, while also setting stop-loss orders to manage potential risks.
【Ethereum Market Analysis】
Ethereum's movement yesterday was somewhat correlated with Bitcoin. It initially surged to around 4348 in the morning before retreating, then dropped to a low of 4165 in the evening, where it found support and began to rebound. Later, influenced by new highs in U.S. stocks, it surged again to a recent high of 4367, but subsequently retreated due to news impact, dropping to around 4187.
From the current 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards. Although the price has retreated, the bullish trend remains strong. The short-term moving averages and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands form a "double support resonance," further enhancing bullish momentum. The overall structure still leans towards a bullish pattern, and the pullback is merely a corrective maneuver in the upward process, with support remaining effective, making it likely for the price to rebound from this level.
Based on the above analysis, it is still recommended to adopt a low long layout strategy for the future market. Investors can focus on the support range around 4150-4200; if the price pulls back to this range and finds effective support, long positions can be considered, with targets set near recent highs, while also setting reasonable stop-loss points based on individual risk tolerance.
In the crypto market, opportunities and risks coexist. Only by maintaining a calm mind and closely monitoring market dynamics and technical changes can we make wiser investment decisions in complex market conditions. Let us pay attention to the subsequent developments in the market and seize every potential trading opportunity.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop-losses, don’t understand take-profit, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck at the bottom, unable to hold profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.
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