Today, although the market has experienced fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains stable, and the risk-averse sentiment before the CPI announcement is relatively normal. Last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, with market expectations at 2.8% and the Cleveland Fed predicting 2.72%. Unless there are unexpected developments, the result is likely to fall within the 2.7%-2.8% range; a figure below 2.7% would be favorable for the market. The month-on-month CPI expectation is lower than the previous value, indicating that inflation transmission pressure is not significant; the core CPI is equal to or higher than last month, reflecting that inflation in the U.S. is still on the rise, and the data has not yet included the impact of official tariffs.

The impact of tariffs on the market is gradually being digested, and the current focus is on the policy game between Trump's faction and the Federal Reserve's conservatives. If the data is good, everyone will be happy; if it is poor, it may not be too pessimistic, as the probability of a rate cut in September remains high. The outcome of the game between the market and the Federal Reserve is still uncertain.

Regarding $BTC, the turnover rate has risen since Monday as expected, mainly driven by short-term investors, and the weekend's increase has attracted trading activity. Early investors are taking a wait-and-see approach and have not sold off due to BTC's return to $120,000. The two main support levels are stable, and holders are gradually shifting towards long-term holding. The seventh support zone is forming, but it still needs to be observed for stability. Overall, short-term capital is active, but the strength of long-term holding is stable, providing strong support for the price.

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