The current price of Bitcoin is $116,800. What price could this bull market reach? When might it end? Can you provide a detailed analysis from both fundamental and technical perspectives?
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✅ I. Fundamental Analysis
- Macroeconomic Environment
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cycle: The Federal Reserve is currently in the early stages of expected interest rate cuts, which has a significant uplifting effect on risk assets, especially crypto assets.
Dollar Liquidity: When market funds are loose, scarce assets like Bitcoin become more attractive, especially as inflation expectations rise.
- ETF Approval Effect
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the inflow of funds (such as from BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) are important driving forces behind this bull market.
Current funds are still flowing in, and the "incremental funds" from institutional investors are far from over.
ETFs allow traditional funds to participate in BTC with a low threshold, enhancing Bitcoin's valuation anchor.
- Halving Cycle Logic
Bitcoin will experience its fourth block reward halving in April 2024, and historically, peaks occur about 12-18 months after halving.
2012 Halving → Peak at the end of 2013
2016 Halving → Peak at the end of 2017
2020 Halving → Peak in November 2021
If the historical pattern continues:
April 2024 Halving → Expected peak around Q4 2025 (around November-December)
✅ II. Technical Analysis
- Historical Growth Comparison
Pre-halving low to bull market peak growth:
2012-2013: $12 to $1,150 ~ 95x
2016-2017: $200 to $19,700 ~ 98x
2020-2021: $3,800 to $69,000 ~ 18x
2024-2025: ~$15,500 (bear market low)? Target?
If this bull market's growth is only 1/3 of the last one (about 6x), then:
$15,500 × 6 = $93,000 (already surpassed)
If the growth is 10x: Target is $155,000
If conservatively estimated in the range of 5-7x: Target is $75,000 - $110,000 (already reached the upper limit)
However, because the "institutional-level funds" brought by ETFs are unprecedented, this may break the previous patterns.
Therefore:
📈 The current market is in a phase of "valuation expansion," with little technical resistance, and top predictions can be assisted by logarithmic growth curves.
- Logarithmic Regression Channel Model
This model is used by many analysts (such as Benjamin Cowen) for long-term peak predictions. The current price is just touching or breaking the upper boundary, indicating:
If it continues to break through, it will enter the "overvalued area," but it may still last for several months.
If it maintains at the upper track of the channel, there is still upward space to the $130,000 - $180,000 range.
- Technical Indicators (Short to Medium Term)
RSI (Daily): May have entered the overbought zone (>75), but the weekly is not yet extreme.
200-day moving average deviation: Currently far above the moving average, indicating a short-term bubble.
On-chain data (Glassnode, etc.):
HODLers have not started to sell in large amounts.
Exchange inflow is low → Investors have not cashed out on a large scale.
The gap between the realized price and the current price still allows for an increase.
🎯 III. Price Targets and Time Window Summary
Type | Target Price
Conservative Target | $130,000 (Technical + ETF Valuation Expansion)
Aggressive Target | $180,000 - $220,000 (if large-scale FOMO + continued ETF inflow)
Top Time Window | Q2-Q4 2025 (especially Q4), 12-18 months after halving cycle
⚠️ Risk Warning
Macroeconomic Sudden Risks: Geopolitical issues, financial crises, new ETF regulatory policies.
Systemic risks from Binance, Tether, etc. still exist.
Market Overheating Signals: If Altcoins surge wildly, media hype, influx of newcomers.
📌 Conclusion
This Bitcoin bull market, driven by ETF funds, may redefine the price ceiling, with mid to long-term targets in the $130,000-$180,000 range being reasonable, and the peak time possibly occurring around the end of 2025. However, short-term technical overbought signals have appeared, making it necessary to take precautions against potential pullback risks.
BTC
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