Currently, the expectations for interest rate cuts in September are quite high, but in reality, the help for Trump is limited. The Federal Reserve's voting committee has 12 members, and after Kugler's resignation, there are only 11 votes for September, resulting in a simple majority.

Previously, Kugler was a conservative, so there is one less vote against cutting interest rates. However, since the new member cannot be appointed in time, there will not be an additional vote in favor of cutting rates. Currently, it is known that only three members can vote for a rate cut, and at least three of the remaining eight must agree to cut rates.

Of course, it is a bit early to say this now, as there are still data from July and August. If there is a continued economic decline or the possibility of inflation contracting, then the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September is still quite high.

But as we have said before, a rate cut does not necessarily mean good news. If the cut is due to concerns about an economic recession, it would be detrimental to the market, which has been the case since Friday. On the other hand, if the cut is solely due to declining inflation without economic factors, it would be beneficial for risk markets.

The former is referred to as a "band-aid" rate cut, while the latter is called a defensive rate cut.

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