Yesterday, just before going to bed, I saw the price briefly drop below $113,000. I thought the panic would intensify, but when I got up at noon, it seemed to have stabilized for the time being. Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the $112,000 URPD gap, which unfortunately has not been filled yet. This is something I am personally quite concerned about, as historically, URPD gaps have never gone unfilled; it's just a matter of time.

Of course, this does not mean that it will definitely be filled this time. From a probabilistic standpoint, even if it is not filled this time, it will eventually have to be addressed. This is unrelated to being bullish or bearish; it's purely a narrative.

Additionally, there is a short-term gap for $BTC on CME between $91,970 and $92,525, and the only gap for $ETH is between $2,853 and $2,925. However, compared to the URPD gap, the CME gap does not have as high a certainty of being filled. My backtesting data suggests that there is about a 91% probability of gaps being filled.

Currently, my long position is at a floating loss of 47%, and I have no plans to stop-loss for now; I will hold on and see what happens.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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