Last week (July 22 - July 28), BTC maintained a high-level consolidation. ETH's capital flow continued to improve, with ETH spot ETFs seeing net inflows for eight consecutive weeks, raising ETH's market share to 11.8%. On July 25, due to significant selling pressure from Galaxy Digital, BTC briefly fell below the $115,000 support level, dipping to $114,723.16, before quickly rebounding above the consolidation range. Currently, BTC's price is stable around $118,859, with upward momentum building, and the maximum volatility during the week was 4.59%.

Last week, ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $402 million, outperforming BTC spot ETFs, achieving eight consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling over $7 billion. After a brief surge, ETH entered a consolidation phase, driven by capital, and on the 28th, it surged again to $3,941. The current price is stable around $3,876, with a maximum volatility of 12.5% during the week (data sourced from Binance spot, July 29, 17:00).

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, the Nasdaq up 1.02%, and the S&P 500 up 1.46%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.91%.

Market Interpretation

Ancient Whales Concentrate Selling, BTC Price Quickly Recovers

In late July, the market's focus shifted to the "ancient whales" large transfer events. On-chain data showed that Galaxy Digital transferred a total of 80,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) to various exchanges multiple times on July 25. This operation originated from eight old addresses holding 10,000 BTC each. Galaxy Digital's official announcement confirmed that this transaction was part of a long-term holder's estate planning strategy, marking the largest nominal value single transaction in cryptocurrency history.

Due to the massive selling pressure, BTC's price temporarily dropped from $119,000 to $115,000, showing significant short-term volatility. However, subsequent market performance indicated strong buying support, and BTC's price quickly rebounded above $117,000, with the selling pressure rapidly absorbed. The 80,000 BTC accounted for about 0.5% of the circulating supply, and the actual impact was far lower than market expectations, reflecting the overall ample capital and liquidity in the current bull market phase.

ETH Approaches $4,000 Key Level, Staking and Capital Demand Polarization

In mid-July, the queue for ETH unstaking surged, accumulating over 475,000 ETH, with a total value of about $1.9 billion, primarily due to soaring borrowing rates triggering concentrated liquidations of circular loan strategies, leading to a large number of users withdrawing, exacerbating the decoupling of LST/LRT and secondary market pressure. Meanwhile, new staking demand for ETH remains strong, with institutions continuously increasing their holdings, effectively buffering the impact of large-scale unstaking, showing a clear polarization in supply and demand.

Since June 2025, ETH has accumulated an increase of nearly 80%, with the current price approaching $4,000, outperforming most mainstream crypto assets. This round of price increase is driven by whale accumulation, a decrease in exchange circulation, and an increase in staking scale, with about 30% of ETH locked in staking and over 1.5 million new ETH staked, tightening the circulation side. In the derivatives market, ETH perpetual contract positions reached a new high, with a neutral funding rate and rational market sentiment. Institutional allocation is accelerating, with net inflows into spot ETH ETFs exceeding $3 billion in the past two months, and over ten listed companies holding positions, reinforcing the mid-to-long-term allocation logic. Amid market rotation, BTC's market share has dropped to 60%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has strengthened, making ETH a mainstream target for capital inflows.

Altcoin Sector Polarization Intensifies, Solana and XRP Stand Out in Capital Inflows

Recently, the altcoin market has shown polarization, with Solana and XRP demonstrating significant capital attraction. Last week, Solana saw net inflows of $311 million, mainly benefiting from the meme coin trading frenzy and an active DeFi ecosystem, leveraging its high throughput and low-cost advantages to become the preferred choice for developers and users. XRP had net inflows of $189 million, benefiting from the nearing conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and the advancement of cross-border payment business, reaching a historical high of $3.66 in July, with the approval of a spot ETF further enhancing liquidity.

Other altcoins showed mixed performance. SUI had net inflows of $8 million, with market attention on its Move language ecosystem innovation; meanwhile, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash saw net outflows of $1.2 million and $660,000, respectively, indicating a decline in funding preference for "old" projects lacking innovative support. Currently, ETH continues to lead among mainstream coins, and the ecosystem expansion of Solana and XRP is expected to drive new capital inflows.

Market Highlights

Focus on Macroeconomic Data and Policy Trends, Market Volatility May Intensify

This week, macro policies and tech sector earnings reports will be core variables affecting market sentiment. The first crypto policy report from the U.S. White House is set to be released on July 30, which may bring new regulatory guidance to the digital asset industry. On July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, with Chairman Powell attending a press conference. Currently, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve stands at 62.4%. If there are changes in the wording or economic outlook during this meeting, it may trigger a reassessment of monetary policy adjustments in the market.

In the tech stock sector, the BTC financial company Strategy, listed on Nasdaq, will disclose its second-quarter performance after the U.S. stock market closes on July 31 and hold an online seminar. As an important holder of BTC assets, its earnings report will be a focal point for the market. Coupled with the upcoming core data releases on GDP, employment, and inflation from major global economies, market volatility may further amplify under the interplay of macro and industry fundamentals. Investors need to closely monitor policy trends and key earnings report performances, remaining vigilant against market disturbances caused by sentiment changes.

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