Waking up early, I found that the United States and the European Union have almost reached a trade agreement, which means that the U.S. has completed tariff negotiations with most major trading countries. China has an additional 90 days (actually 107 days) left, which is good news for the market. Although the tariffs of around 15% are still about six times higher than last year's average of 2.5%, it is already a decent figure compared to Trump's initial proposal, allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief for now.

Next up is monetary policy and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Official tariffs, except for a few countries like China, will officially start on August 1 (not sure if it will be TACO). The inflation data for September will begin to reflect the tariff information, and the rest depends on the Federal Reserve.

The interest rate meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to change rates, with the key focus being whether Powell will make a more dovish statement regarding expectations for a rate cut in September.

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