Interview Guest: American Macro Investor and Founder of 50T Dan Tapiero
Podcast Source: When Shift Happens
Broadcast Date: Jul 10, 2025
Compiled by: BitpushNews
Preface:
In the ever-changing financial world, there are always voices that can penetrate the fog and guide the way. Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings (now renamed 50T) and One Roundt Partners, a global macro investment veteran who has managed over $1.5 billion in Web3 and digital assets, has now bet his entire fortune on the trillion-dollar future of cryptocurrency. This episode of the podcast explores his survival rules in this "new world," risk management philosophy, and unique insights into industry development.
Q: You worked on Wall Street for 25 years, collaborating with legendary investors like Steve Cohen, Stan Druckenmiller, and Julian Robertson. What did you learn from them?
Dan: I worked alongside Steve Cohen for ten years, five of which I sat right next to him. He is perceived as an extremely aggressive trader, but in reality, he is very humorous, often telling jokes in the trading room. He taught me to maintain a relaxed mindset even in a competitive and tense environment. His short-term trading skills are legendary; he once shorted the euro 19 times in a row, all profitably. While I prefer medium to long-term macro trading, learning this keen perception of market details is invaluable.
Stan gave me tremendous confidence. He encouraged me to turn macro ideas into real businesses, which led us to create the largest private farmland REIT in the U.S. We found that farmland prices did not accurately reflect their productivity, so we invested heavily in Midwest farmland and eventually sold it for $450 million, yielding substantial returns. He made me realize that a great investment idea doesn't have to be traded in capital markets; it can also become a real business.
Julian shaped my initial macro analysis framework. He made me aware of the critical importance of writing skills in investing. You must clearly express your views, hypotheses, risks, and opportunities; otherwise, the idea is meaningless.
Q: You are now one of the staunchest advocates in the crypto space. Why did you transition from traditional finance to this new field?
Dan: I first encountered Bitcoin in 2012, but I truly decided to go "all in" in 2018. That year, the market had just experienced the bubble burst of 2017, and Bitcoin fell to $3,000-$4,000. I thought: it could either go to zero, or this is the bottom, and there is huge upside potential ahead. This is a scenario familiar to traders: when the potential return far exceeds the risk, it's worth betting.
I firmly believe that the future of cryptocurrency is a massive $10 trillion market, and this belief supports my position as an "all-in" player in the industry. I see its enormous potential, which drives me to make such a decision.
I realized that Bitcoin is not just an asset; it is a network, a value system, a technological revolution. It is the greatest decentralized network in human history, and I even believe its value should exceed that of Amazon. This led me to propose the "10T" vision: the total value of the entire crypto ecosystem will grow from $300 billion to $10 trillion within ten years.
Q: You mentioned that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in ten years. Why are you so confident?
Dan: It's simple; if you look at the best-performing assets in history, Bitcoin is undoubtedly the best. I believe that in the next decade, we will see the total value of the entire crypto ecosystem grow from about $5 trillion to $50 trillion. Bitcoin itself will account for $20 trillion of that, which translates to $1 million per coin based on supply. I think this is a very conservative estimate.
Q: As a professional investor, what are your risk management principles?
Dan: The key to risk management is that you can never put yourself in a position where you can't recover. In 1994, I made a very large bet on Japanese government bonds, yielding thousands of times the return. However, within a week, I lost half of the profits I had made the previous year. This lesson made me deeply understand: "Never put yourself in a position where you could lose to the point of not being able to recover." Therefore, I would rather give up some potential upside than firmly control downside risk. This deep understanding and strict control of risk have been key to my ability to navigate cycles and maintain long-term profitability.
All my funds adhere to this principle: no single investment exceeds 15%, and the portfolio structure should withstand 80% to even 90% of market declines. Bitcoin never needs to be sold, but for other assets, the moment you feel "wealthy," it's time to sell. That is the peak of emotion, and you must exit with discipline.
Q: How do you view the investment behavior of young people in the crypto space?
Dan: I must admit that the difficulty of this (crypto) field is 50 times higher than everything in the old world combined. Many people can get rich quickly in the short term, but ultimately, most will give up. The only way to survive in this market is to adopt a counterintuitive strategy: there is only one way to go: "Buy it and then forget about it." This means you must overcome the impulse to trade frequently, focus on long-term value, and resist the distractions of short-term market noise; otherwise, it is hard to survive sustainably.
To be honest, most young people cannot withstand a complete cycle. They may start off making quick profits, but soon they are wiped out or even lose everything in the volatility. If you are not a professional trader, the best strategy is simple: buy, put it in a hardware wallet, and forget about it.
I have seen too many young guys in their 20s who stop working for a week after a breakup. This level of stress resistance is not sustainable in a high-risk industry. Crypto is more complex, more volatile, and more brutal than traditional finance.
Q: What is the structure of the assets you currently manage? What is the proportion of your personal investments?
Dan: I manage $1.5 billion through 10T and 1RT, investing in 23 crypto companies. In my personal asset allocation, crypto-related assets (including fund shares, Bitcoin, and Ethereum) account for over 50%. I do not engage in short-term trading, nor do I sell just because something has increased 5x or 10x. I believe this is a ten-year cycle.
At the same time, I also allocate some to gold, but it is clear that crypto assets have become the core driving force behind my personal wealth growth.
Q: What are your views on NFTs and traditional artworks?
Dan: I have collected some classical oil paintings, but almost no one buys old masters' works anymore. Young people are not interested, and prices have not fluctuated. NFTs are more like a part of the creator economy, assigning value to creativity on-chain. I believe that in the future, all value will be on-chain, but right now, the NFT market still has too many garbage projects and scams that need time to filter out.
Q: How do you persuade traditional institutions like school endowments or pension funds to invest in cryptocurrency?
Dan: In 2019, I convinced my alma mater's high school to invest 1% of its endowment in crypto. Initially, everyone thought I was crazy, but we bought Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a bit of venture capital, and it has now increased over 12 times. Now, institutions like the Texas Teacher Retirement Fund and the Michigan Pension Fund have also become our investors. Because we control volatility and diversify allocations, these traditional institutions can "sleep well" while participating in growth.
Q: What do you think are the biggest macro trends for the future?
Dan: I believe we are in a period of redistributing "digital economic sovereignty." The Federal Reserve and the traditional financial system are gradually losing trust, and people are starting to organize resources, create order, and define value through Bitcoin, stablecoins, DAOs, and other means. This paradigm shift has only just begun.
Just like when the internet first started, no one understood HTML, domain names, or servers; today, many still do not understand concepts like "wallet," "private key," or "signature." But once these tools become invisible, crypto will truly integrate into daily life.
Q: Summarize your judgment of this era in one sentence.
Dan: The year 2000 was the golden investment period for the internet; starting in 2020, we are in the capital boom of the crypto world. I have bet my entire fortune on it.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
